Omaha theory

[Jack10]

i wish there was a lot more discussion here about "omaha theory" although i think that is unlikely.

to answer your question, i would say that you should consider just floating with any hand against a lot of opponents with between 0-22 outs because most often you do have fewer outs than you can represent but yet you are still able to win a lot of pots post-turn. you want to have the goods as much as possible so as to be able to win the pot the highest percentage of the time.

this explanation is shoddy as hell - plz flame.

[chucky]

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If I could turn the question around a little. OOP how many outs do you feel you would need to justify a pot size call?

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Bryan - I like your new question, but I don't think it has an answer.

Whether or not you have enough outs to have favorable odds to call a pot sized bet depends on whether or not you will go all in with the call. And it depends on which betting round you are talking about. And it depends on how many opponents match the money you put in. And it depends on how solid your outs are.

Let’s suppose there’s $100 in the pot, $100 just happens to be how much you have on the table in front of you, an opponent bets $100, and everybody else folds. If you call and win, you win $200. If you call and lose, you lose $100.

Hopefully it’s obvious to you that you only have to win more than one third of the time to have favorable odds to call.

If you go all-in on the flop, you see the 4 cards in your hand and the 3 cards on the board, and thus there are 45 cards whose whereabouts are unknown, and there are 990 possible different two card combinations for the turn+river. You just need at least 330 of these to be favorable for you to break even. Thus you want there to be better than 330 favorable two card combinations for you.

With 8 outs, 8*7/2+8*37=324. That’s not quite enough.

With 9 outs, 9*8/2+9*36=396. That’s more like it! Looks like you need at least 9 outs if you’re going all in against one opponent and matching a pot sized bet.
*****
Now lets suppose there’s $100 in the pot, $100 just happens to be how much you have on the table in front of you, an opponent bets $100, one other opponent calls, and everybody else folds. If you call and win, this time you win $300. If you call and lose, you still lose $100.

Hopefully it’s obvious to you that you only have to win more than one fourth of the time to have favorable odds to call.

This time we want the favorable turn/river combinations to number greater than 990/4. 248 or better looks like the number of favorable two card turn/river combinations you need.

With 6 outs, 6*5/2+6*39 = 249. That will do nicely. Looks like you need at least 6 outs if you’re going all in against two opponents and matching a pot sized bet.

And with more opponents, if you go all-in, you need still fewer outs.

But it isn’t that simple. Pot-limit Omaha is a complicated game. One obvious discrepancy is you usually won’t exactly have the amount already in the pot in front of you. And when you do, usually your outs are not 100% guaranteed to win. For example, if you have the 2nd nut flush draw, roughly one third of the time an opponent at a full table will have been dealt the nut flush draw - if you’re drawing for the nut flush and make your draw, the board may also pair, thus enabling a full house or quads.

A very important difference between Omaha and Texas Hold ‘Em is when the board pairs in Omaha, there’s a much greater probability someone has a full house.

And I figured the above from directly after the flop. After the turn, if you are heads-up, still need a card, an opponent bets the pot, and that is the exact amount you have left in front of you, then you need to win one third of the time. That's the same as above, but now there are 44 unknown cards. 44/3 = 14.7. Thus after the turn, to all-in call a pot sized bet, you need fifteen outs instead of nine.

But on the turn if you and your opponent both have chips left, you need to consider your implied pot odds. In other words, how much can you get out of your opponent on the fourth betting round if you make your hand on the river. (Figuring on the basis of implied pot odds decreases the number of outs you need - but you want to be realistic).

Going back to the flop, if you have plenty of chips left when an opponent makes a pot sized bet and a second opponent calls, it could cost you four times as much on the third betting round, for a total of five times your second betting round bet for both the second and third rounds combined.

How many outs do you need to call a pot sized bet? The answer has to be entirely dependent on the situation.

Buzz

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Buzz,

You wrote a very nice explanation of understanding outs and pot odds. One problem is that in a multi-way hand if Hero is drawing to OESD for the nuts, there is a decent chance that another player is drawing to the same outs. This definitely makes calculating allin equity more difficult on the fly, but the nature of shared outs in omaha can not be ignored.

[Bryan15]

so you believe its best to fold the OESD if you do not have anything else with it. What about a wrap? Any different?

[Buzz]

Chucky - Good point. Thanks.

Let me hasten to add that although they were not all in agreement in this thread, Pete, cmyr, and Ribbo are all head and shoulders above me in knowledge of how to play this game. You too.

I learn from you all.

Perhaps I shouldn't post here at all, since admittedly fixed-limit-Omaha-8 is my game of choice.

But since I'm interested in learning more about this game and since some of the threads have applicability to high-only hands and boards in Omaha-8, I get interested in threads and posts in this forum. It's very helpful to me to gain insight into how my own opponents might sometimes be thinking.

And sometimes I'll have a thought or a different perspective that might be helpful to someone else.

Buzz

[chucky]

for wraps, the important statistic is nut outs. if you have kq89 on a jt2 rainbow board, you should raise for value. But thats an easy one.

A basic rule OOP would be to raise all nut draws with 15 outs or more on the flop, mixture of calling and raising for 9-14 outs depending on fold equity, and playing draws with 8 nut outs or less based player reads. Namely can you check/raise or bet out bluff the player when other draws come in.