Calling an early open push

[Josem]

muppets, do ICM for the answer to this.

[Sober]

I guess we can try some math with it..

Say I'm 10-tabling continuous. For math's sake we'll say I get in 20 sngs/hour. If I'm playing $10 sngs for 10% roi, that's $20/hr.

If in the 1st 5 minutes of 5 of those sngs, I take an early opportunity to flip for my stack, I'll bust 2.5 times and win 2.5 times. So, I'll get in 22.5 sngs/hour playing this way, and I'll have a significantly higher roi on 2.5 of those games, because of the early stack advantage.

So now I'm playing 22.5 sng's/hr. Now we break down the roi's for the different parts:

15 of my tourneys retain the 10% roi, as I don't have an early coinflip opportunity and therefore play as normal.

2.5 of my tourneys have a 0% roi.

2.5 of my tourneys have an roi closer to 15% I'd imagine. I'm not completely sure what the roi difference is when you've doubled up AND already knocked out one opponent, but I think it's probably a lot higher, but for the sake of making this argument soundly, I'll put it at 15%.

So, my old hourly rate was $20/hr, playing 20 $10 sngs/hr at a 10% roi.

Now, we have:

15 sngs @ 10% roi = $15
2.5 sngs @ 0% roi = $0
2.5 sngs @ 15% roi = $3.75
______________________
$18.75/hr

BUT WAIT! We have another 2.5 games in that hour, remember? 22.5, not 20.

2.5 sngs @ 10% roi = $2.5
______________
$21.25/hr

Holy [censored]. It worked. Honestly, I'm surprised. Obviously, there are a million variables here (plus not accounting for rake, etc), but this does (if my math is right) give evidence that, if you are playing continuously, flipping a coin early is beneficial to your hourly rate because you get to play more tournaments than if you played those same tournaments for 25 minutes and bubbled like you do every [censored] time.

[Sober]

Just thought I'd say that, barring someone pointing out glaring holes in my dissertation there, that's the best post I've ever made. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Boise123]

[ QUOTE ]
Just thought I'd say that, barring someone pointing out glaring holes in my dissertation there, that's the best post I've ever made. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post!