BVB vs tough player

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
good posts, oink and sharpie, but one thing we should all make clear is that bway gutshots make up a tiny portion of villain's range (he should be 3-betting them pf the vast majority of the time).

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point that I missed!

So what range can we put him on?

If he is 3-betting JTo, he is also 3-betting a lot of Ax and Kx not to mention pps.

This leaves weak Kx, low pp's and air. Right?

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
good posts, oink and sharpie, but one thing we should all make clear is that bway gutshots make up a tiny portion of villain's range (he should be 3-betting them pf the vast majority of the time).

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point that I missed!

So what range can we put him on?

If he is 3-betting JTo, he is also 3-betting a lot of Ax and Kx not to mention pps.

This leaves weak Kx, low pp's and air. Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

nah ppl often try and get tricky and flat call A2o-A6o. It's a huge and nasty portion of his range imo. there are also a fair number of 3x hands and unfortunately 54 too. don't think PPs are a big consideration for same reason as gutshot bways. qx is certainly in there though.

this is really not a very profitable spot at all. checking and hoping he bets 3x/q-hi is a good idea on the surface but he might just try and show them down cheap, particularly if you screwplay a lot.

I think betting is fine too cuz most of his range is only good enough to call here. if he raises we have to call and hope he takes a free showdown.

I think we get owned a lot on the river here and this is one of the many spots where I'm afraid I blindly showdown way too much.

[Oink]

Ok so I am kinda drunk now

But if we put him on Qx, A2-A6. K2-K8 and hands like 54. Shouldnt we be able to do the math and figure it out?

BTW. Its far from all 30/20 guys at 5/10 that 3-balls JTo and QJo PF. I think we need to add those, but discount them.

[TheHip41]

against good players I c/c the turn and c/f the river.

[frenchpignouf]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,192 games 0.005 secs 1,038,400 games/sec

Board: Ks 3c Ad 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 91.824% 90.47% 01.36% 4697 70.50 { Kc7d }
Hand 1: 08.176% 06.82% 01.36% 354 70.50 { K6s-K4s, Q8s-Q2s, K6o-K4o, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJh, QdJs, QhJs, QTo-Q6o, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTh, JdTs, JhTs }


We loose 8x4 =0.32BB IF he takes the free card. this range is 13.2%

I don't think, he raises the turn with k8.
We loose against A4s-A2s,K3s-K2s,54s,A6o-A2o,K3o-K2o,54o 9% with 92% of equity against us.
So if he raises all this hands we loose 0.92 BB more

The gain of B/C and Call down is

13.2/(13.2+9)*0.32-9/(13.2+9)*0.92=-0.18 BB

I think he don't think he takes the free card too often, it is very tempting to bet with JT.

If bluf raise the turn and river 13% of the time (otherwise B/C C/F > B/C C/C), he blufs the turn and the river if we check the turn imo, so we win just 0.13BB if we catch a bluf.



With B/C C/F, we save 0.32 if he takes the free card 100% of the times and loose 7BB if he blufs the turn and the river. So if he bluffs the turn and the river at least 4% of the time C/C C/C > B/C C/F.

[vmacosta]

frenchpig,
it's a good effort, andwe really appreciate it when ppl try and work out the math here. but why'd you leave out all the 3x hands? There are plenty of them imo. 42s and 52s might also be in there, villain dependent.

"With B/C C/F, we save 0.32 if he takes the free card 100% of the times and loose 7BB if he blufs the turn and the river. So if he bluffs the turn and the river at least 4% of the time C/C C/C > B/C C/F."

I think you should be clear about what you mean here. Not all of his range are hands that have to bluff. Here's an example: Say half his hands are behind right now and drawing dead. Then he actually needs to make a 3 BB bluff with 8% of his crap hand range. In reality many of his hands he chooses to bluff with will likely have some outs, so really that percentage will have to be even higher.