Roulette Wheel Bias and Craps

[Terry]

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Once again, you show your ignorance. The craps dealers wouldn't be able to recognize a good controlled throw if they saw it, because to an observer it doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary.

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/sigh
The ignorance of someone with more than 30 years experience.

Ok, you asked for it.

When you (read "you" as you personally, or as any of the people foolish enough to spend money on a dice control system and try it out [even if that person is a well known and respected gambling author]) take a place at the rail at a craps table, you either begin betting right away, which marks you as a loser, because you are betting on the rolls of a "non-professional" shooter, or you wait until it is your turn to shoot.

If you don't start playing pretty much immediately, you are noted by the crew working the game as "out of the ordinary." They don't know what your story is just yet, but they know you aren't a typical tourist ... and they know they won't be making any money (tokes) from you, so they won't feel any desire to bend any rules for you.

When your turn to shoot comes and the stickman pushes you the dice, you may fiddle-fart around with the dice to get them "set" for your system, in which case the stickman tells you to "Pick 'em up and shoot 'em." If you continue to hold up the game despite the stickman's and then boxman's requests, you are now suspected of being a jerk out to yank their chain ... not actually uncommon, but still "out of the ordinary."

If you have practiced your set-up and quickly arrange the dice to your liking, it may take them two or three rolls to see what you are up to (since a player who fully understands the layout of the spots on the dice and can quickly arrange them is "out of the ordinary") ... except ...

The instant you throw the dice in that peculiar lofting arc, everybody working in the pit knows what you're trying to do. You may think it looks normal, but to the guys in the pit, who have seen many thousands of rolls, it is most definitely "out of the ordinary."

If the dice don't bounce and roll off the wall, you will get one nasty look and told once to "Bounce them off the back wall." If you do the same thing again, the stickman and / or the boxman will yell "No roll." and the stickman will knock the dice off the number they landed on as quickly as he can.

Depending on the class of the joint, you will either be told loudly and openly about your actions or a guy in a suit will come out of the pit and tell you quietly, but you will be told that if you don't bounce the dice off the wall you will not be allowed to shoot. They aren't talking about bouncing them 1 inch off the wall, nor about having them "slide" a little bit out of the corner after dropping nearly dead.

It doesn't take any great mental ability to be a Craps dealer, but you aren't dealing with idiots. Most likely, some of those guys in the pit have been watching dice roll since before you were born. They have seen your act hundreds of times before. They knew you were "out of the ordinary" within seconds of your arrival at the table, and they knew what you were trying to do the instant you let go of the dice on your first shot.

If they continue to let you shoot, it is for one reason and one reason only -- they know you aren't good enough to pose a threat. And even if they stopped you, it doesn't mean they feared you or that they were trying to break your concentration or that they were trying to interrupt your "flow". They stopped you because you were holding up the game, and maybe just because you were being a jerk.

Ah, yes. Excuse me for highlighting your ignorance, but it simply doesn't pay to try to buffalo someone with many years of experience who knows what he's talking about. What you think "to an observer ... doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary" will, in actuality immediately grab the attention of an experienced observer from the other end of the pit.

There are probably many things about which you know more than I do, but on this, good fellow, you are badly mistaken.

I hope I've persuaded at least one person to not waste his money by giving it to some gambling system scamster or to a (sadly) mistaken but otherwise respectable author.

/sigh

[stigmata]

Terry,

I like your posts and 'all, and I agree that dice setting sounds utterly implausible. However, i really think if someone actually took the time to become proficient at "dice setting" (if such a thing were possible) they would also take the time to work out the social engineering / camoflage such that they would not arouse suspicion.

Whilst a "non-compliant" throw will allways arouse suspicion, surely you could be more subtle: E.g. make small pass line bets as soon as you arive at the table. Initially make non-suspect throws. When you feel the time is right right, set the dice and signal to your "Big Player" to make a decent size bet, etc. It would also help if you targetted a semi-clueless casino/floor.

[Kerth]

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Seriously, don't you realize that you lose validity when you just state an opinion with nothing surrounding it?

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"It works! It works! Read a book!" is much better.

[bpb]

If dice setting is such crap, then why does Stanford Wong think its possible?

[sekrah]

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If dice setting is such crap, then why does Stanford Wong think its possible?

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No one is saying it's impossible. They are saying that if you try such a thing, it'll be picked up by the floor.

You would have to be very conspicious (sp?) when you use it (Sending out signals to a teammate when you are about to pull it) and even then, the eyes in the sky and on the floor are not morons.

[Terry]

Stanford Wong is very knowledgeable about many aspects of gambling, no doubt about that. His books have taught me how to make a lot of money over the years.

He does sometimes make mistakes, though. Some of those mistakes are based on his incorrect assumptions about what goes on inside the pit. To protect his reputation as a legitimate provider of information to be used against the casinos, he has chosen to avoid contact with casino employees and managers, so as to avoid any perception of conflict of interest.

I respect his decision and his integrity, but add the caveat that a significant part of the information he provides about the inner workings of casinos is incorrect, due directly to the fact that he has little actual inside knowledge.

My opinion is that he is simply mistaken about the viability of dice control. In the Bellagio experiment a couple years ago, his own employees, one of whom sometimes posts here, were betting against him. Even though Wong won the bet, he himself states that a trial of 500 rolls is in no way proof that it works.

Enough on Wong -- I don't want to go off on another long-winded rant.

Note that last night's post addressed only one point; the idea that a control shot will "look like a normal throw." I didn't touch on things like the different characteristics of different brands of dice, the effects of wear on the corners and edges of the dice, the differences in grabbiness and slipperiness between new and old felt on the tables, the softness or hardness of the rubber backing and whether or not the rubber was flush to the table surface or had a gap ... I could go on for a very long time, but I won't. I'm afraid I took the bait on the use of the word "ignorance" and ran with it.

[bpb]

Thanks for the response. That's a good explanation.

[Nottom]

Terry,

If I understand correctly. You think dice control is impossible as much because the casinos wouldn't let it happen as the fact that it would just be hard to do?

[Terry]

That sums it up pretty well.

This is nothing new. It got a book published about it and got some cable TV exposure, that's all. I've seen some players working at this for over 20 years; their thrift shop clothes and the bus schedule in their pocket says something about their success.

One countermeasure casinos have used to prevented this ... Years ago, before a stick was used, a dealer would toss the dice to the player. The player had to catch the dice on the fly and shoot immediately -- if he missed the catch, he had to set them down and the dealer would toss again.

The stick came into use to prevent the dealers from switching loaded dice into and out of the game. Craps had gotten a bad reputation and the joints needed to do something for their image.

Ooops. See, I could go on for a very long time. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[mosch]

The question that comes to mind is the one of probability. How much dice control is required to turn craps into a neutral EV or +EV game, as the shooter?

Given that info, what sort of spread would be required to cover losses sustained during the non-shooter rolls?

Given that info, what sort of $/hr, bankroll, and risk of ruin would we be looking at, for the whole system?

My guess is that it's just barely feasible under certain circumstances, but that it's not practicable in the real world.