Not really a bluff and not a value bet ...

[CobraGoat]

This is definitely a bluff. What hand calls here that you beat? Are you really making this bet on the turn to get value out of the hand? I don't think so. To play this hand for value, IMO, would be to check through on flop and bet an amount giving villain good odds on a safeish river.

Its an intriguing if not good bluff. villain can fold turn and still have plenty of chips to play tough pushbot poker, so you give him an out to fold a J and PPs between you and Qs. But that is such a small range to try and bluff out.

I think I will just cop out and agree with Markbris' point A [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Proofrock]

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also, this is a bluff. anytime you're called here i expect you to be behind.

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Sure, but I expect to be behind pretty rarely (except for hands like 99-TT maybe).

However, the board just got significantly more drawy, so I think this bet is for protection. The pot is large, his range is still pretty wide, and any 8,9,T,K,A or diamond could cost me the pot.

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i doubt villain is stacking off with ace high or smaller pairs here.

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Agreed, but there are enough potential draws out there that I think it would be a mistake for me to give a free card.

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we are simply hoping to fold out better hands with this bet since a larger part of his range has us beat than does not.

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I'm also happy to fold out hands that have good equity vs. 88 that won't put any more money in unless they improve. Also, I'm not sure a larger part of his range has us beat than doesn't.

[registrar]

1. I think it's OK.
2. I don't think he folds 99+ that often on a flop this dry. He calls with 77 way less often that he folds better hands. OTOH, if he's behind, he's not usually putting in another chip UI on the river.
3. No
4. I think it's OK.

In sum, I dunno. Interesting hand. I'd generally shove pf because interesting means tricky.

[erc007]

I shove this pre. Obv we are ahead of his 3-betting range here and i think shoving sends a message to the table that restealing (from you) will be difficult/risky. I don't think he's calling the shove with worse/hands that we dominate but it's a good result to take it down pre. I'm sure that mid/high stakes cash players can play this hand profitably postflop with position and >50BBs, but i'm not comfortable with this hand in a pot that's been 3-bet pre.

[BarryLyndon]

1. What's your feel based on villain's range? Blind battles are not just about your hand and math this deep. If I don't know my opponent, I'm giving for a range that is small enough whereas calling > pushing. Now, if villain has RRed me before and has shown a propensity to play strong, aggressive LP poker, then I push. It's a 50 late, so if pokerdb stats show he's a strong player, for instance, then I shove.

2. Your call on the flop is just fine. Now, on the turn, you basically need to ask yourself if he folds out 99/1010/AJ/KJ. That's a chunk of his range. Of course, so is QJ/QK/QA from a good, tricky player, but factor those in a little less. You beat K10/A10, if those hands 3-bet.

3. If you are confused if your bluffing or value betting, then I advocate checking behind on the turn. You showed strength calling on the flop and he's going to be really confused about whether to bluff the rest of his chips off on the river. He MIGHT do that, and if he does, that's going to suck. But I'm not sure that going all-in on the turn is great either.

Come to think of it, I think that I would try to find a good reason to 4-bet and only do that if my counterarguments strongly defeat the reason.

Tough hand.

[Proofrock]

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1. What's your feel based on villain's range? Blind battles are not just about your hand and math this deep. If I don't know my opponent, I'm giving for a range that is small enough whereas calling > pushing. Now, if villain has RRed me before and has shown a propensity to play strong, aggressive LP poker, then I push. It's a 50 late, so if pokerdb stats show he's a strong player, for instance, then I shove.

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My feeling is that he'll be 3-betting most hands he feels like playing here -- suited aces, broadway cards, pairs and suited connectors. At the final two tables, his fold BB to steal was < 50%. The previous times he 3-bet me he either folded to a shove or I folded. As for his db stats, he was roughly break-even over about 50 tournaments with an average buy-in of $55. He postflop play was decent, but nothing spectacular.

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2. Your call on the flop is just fine. Now, on the turn, you basically need to ask yourself if he folds out 99/1010/AJ/KJ. That's a chunk of his range. Of course, so is QJ/QK/QA from a good, tricky player, but factor those in a little less. You beat K10/A10, if those hands 3-bet.

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I'm pretty sure KT and AT 3-bet, as well as a whole bunch of other hands. I don't think he'll fold AJ or KJ, but will probably fold 99/TT. I think with TPTK+ (with the possible exception of JJ) he'll be following through on the turn most of the time since the board just became more coordinated.

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3. If you are confused if your bluffing or value betting, then I advocate checking behind on the turn. You showed strength calling on the flop and he's going to be really confused about whether to bluff the rest of his chips off on the river. He MIGHT do that, and if he does, that's going to suck. But I'm not sure that going all-in on the turn is great either.

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I'm actually not confused about whether I'm value-betting or bluffing. I'm pretty certainly betting for protection, with the added benefit that there are a few hands (TT/99) better than mine in his range that will fold. I don't like checking behind on the turn because I don't want to induce a river shove from a tricky, LAG opponent when so many rivers complete some kind of a draw. Also, if TT/99 are capable of folding the turn is the best place for me to shove.

[BarryLyndon]

Well, based on your reads on the turn, I think you are fine for leading. However:

1. Based on your reads in general, this is definitely a shove preflop. Playing 88 with these stacks, regardless of position, is not great.

2. If I had TT or 99 in this spot, I would justify making a call based on the pot size, my remaining stack, and most of all, the fact that we are in a blind battle here.

3. He's not going to bet on the turn because the board is coordinated because it makes no sense for you to flat call him with KT or anything else on the flop that would become scary when the J hit. AK? No, because you three bet. In fact, I doubt you even call PF with any hand that would make the turn look scary on a now coordinated board.

In other words, if you are flat calling on the flop, there's a strong chance it's because you have a Q or a midpair. Also, if he's REALLY a thinking player, I doubt that he thinks that you are calling with a Q here since QA you are gonna 4-bet with, you may call with KQ, but I imagine that you fold QJ and less in this spot.

Bottom line is that you should have avoided this by 4-betting preflop, which is clearly the best play here given villain's 3-betting range and image. I like your flop call and I think your turn bet is interesting w/ reads. It's not a badly played hand. Just a very difficult one.

Barry