24+2: aces gets action on hyper messy board.

[tomek322]

meh i get it in...

[registrar]

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meh i get it in...

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[tomek322]

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check w intention of c-raising ai. if you give a free card not too bad bc if scare hits u can c-call or lead w 4 flush fold to reraise. or just c-fold and lose minimum.

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Checking is just bad.

[levAA]

I think this hand needs a deeper analysis.

Preflop: It's hard to set a loose player on a range, but at least we can exclude some hands:
AA-TT,AK,maybe AQ,unsuited trash like 82o - which still leaves us a lot of hands.

Flop: With a reraise of this size you get a good information. He likes his hand, he is not worried giving you 1:2,2 pot odds. So from this action we can assume he holds a hand he think is best, or a hand that has a high probability to improve to the best hand.

So let's check the most likely holdings:

1.) TPTK - AJ - and with the raise As is most likely - you are a 56% favorite

2.) top pair with Ks or Qs as kicker - you are 49% underdog

3.) JT - 28% underdog

4.) set of 2s - 12% underdog

5.) any flush draw is highly likely to also be a straight draw like KQ,K9,Q9,98,87... with one spade - you are about from this complete range it's a coinflip

6.) made flush - nearly drawing dead (3%)

7.) top pair with top or good kicker without a spade - 88% favorite (while I think this is very unlikely)

So from all these possibilities your best chance is he plays TPTK with one spade - where you get 56%.
I think if we calculate his complete range you are at best 50%, while I think you are a slight underdog - maybe something like 45% or 1:1,22.

Pot odds are 2468:3168 ~ 1:1,28

I think this is a push/fold decision - I think it's marginally +cEV, and it might gain more value if you think your push has some FE (which I don't think - maybe only against AJ (no spade) - which is unlikely).

If you like to gamble here push, but I can see a fold here too.

[gobboboy]

I bet more on the flop too, like 300 or so.

I'm folding to the raise. It's a gross spot, your opponent is never folding and his range here at worst is pair + flush draw.