Hit bottom set... am I good here?

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm very surprised that no one cares about the check/call/raise line in the face of aggression from the BB. How often do you see this? To me it screams STRENGTH!!!

[/ QUOTE ]Same with T9. On a big draw like KQ too, it's along the line of "well, I'll draw for this small bet. oh, snap raised wtf I'm priced in may as well raise." No?

[Lostit]

[ QUOTE ]
Average stacked villain in the BB is 46/11/2 in 100 + hands

and youre saying his line is always a hand you beat? ok sure, fold it and mutter when the muppet does it with AT, T9, T6, KT....

[/ QUOTE ]

EXACTLY... this was exactly my point, and I think it was missed in this thread.

The snap call here is to always push. Can't yield to a muppet because then its time to hang it up then right? I agree with you, and thats why I did in fact push right there. But was this an auto-pilot call that was in error?

Looking deeper, its very rare that a hand goes around on the flop three times. In this case, you had a player check/call/raise when there was no perceived weakness shown by any of the other opponents. In fact I had already check/raised in the hand, and tipped my hand that I had a monster, and his response was "Oh, you have a monster? Well then now its time to get the money in, and we're gonna play for stacks!!" I think this precludes those other hands.

Now think of the possible monsters, there are only 4.
7 8
10 10
9 9
6 6

Mine is at the bottom of the list.

Was this something that I should have reasonably seen, or was my auto-push still the standard move in a non-standard hand?

[Micro Donk]

theyre in his range, but thats not all thats in his range

[hennnerz]

Lead the flop. If he is aggressive he raises, then you get more of his monies than if you check raise him and he folds, LDO.

Poosh this flop.

[Kasane]

You've still got enough to push. I agree that this isn't AT/KT or something silly like that. It's 2pr plus -- including the current nuts (78). Even then, this is a push. Take a look at this range for BB alone. I'll tighten it a smidge for BB from my earlier one:

Board: 6s 9h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.775% 42.15% 00.62% 12936 191.50 { 6c6d }
Hand 1: 57.225% 56.60% 00.62% 17371 191.50 { TT-99, T9s, 87s, T9o, 87o }


And it's still a push. In other words, don't worry about it. This range is too tight for a 46 vpip, and it's still +EV to push.

Edited to read push for call.

[Lostit]

thanks Kasane.... thats a good scientific way to look at it, and I agree more with the tighter range from the second analysis.

[Zagga]

uNL you can't fold sets on any flop and a any non 3suited turns/rivers or 4 to a straigth turn/river.

And lead the flop, people will notice you didn't c-bet your good hand otherwise

[Pokey]

OK, I'm going to ignore the flop action since you had a read. (I'm assuming you're frequently checking strong hands and weak hands against CO and check-raising often, usually with a made hand and occasionally with air. If that's not a correct assumption then you had no business checking the flop; otherwise, follow your reads.)

As to the action right now, I like a smooth-call, not a push.

Look at the action and stack sizes.

Hero starts the hand with $71.90 and has bet $15.75 so far, leaving him with $56.15, and $44.15 after calling the three-bet.

CO is your loosey-goosey aggro monkey who has us covered; fine. After you check-raise he overcalls, which is VERY often going to be a hand you beat. Not a problem.

BB has $23.65 less than us, so he'll have $20.50 left after his bet. Notice his actions: he checked, smooth-called a LP bet, and then three-bet over a check-raise and an overcaller. Do we REALLY think that's a weak hand?

Here's my problem with pushing: I'm thinking we're often behind BB and often ahead of CO. BB has a short stack and CO has a deep stack. If we push then CO has to call an extra $56.15 into a pot with under $120. Hero's action shows HUGE strength after BB showed HUGE strength and CO likely has a mediocre hand. CO's folding equity is gone, his hand looks like crap, and he's risking an extra 110+ BBs in a hand where one player is committed and overwhelmingly strong and the other is almost surely coming along for the ride with something equivalently strong.

In short, CO is EXTREMELY likely to fold to a push here.

BB, on the other hand, is so short enough now that he's already pot-committed, and his hand could VERY easily be stronger than ours.

No, I want CO in this pot. I want extra cash from CO to pad the pot. I want a sidepot that I'm very likely to win. I want my extra $31.90 from CO to give me an insurance policy. I smooth-call here.

My expectation is that CO calls behind, closing the action. On any turn, BB is pushing for his last whatever, and I'm smooth-calling, expecting CO to call behind. Then, I can push any river and hopefully get a sidepot from CO. Also, I get padding for the pot with a hand that's really not afraid of an overcaller. Finally, I avoid pushing out hands that I really don't fear.

In general we should play sets very fast, but this hand is ALREADY playing very fast. Whether we push or smooth-call, all our money is going into the middle. Whether we push or smooth-call, all of BB's money is going into the middle. My goal is to get all of CO's money in the middle, because I think I've got a very good chance of winning it. Don't push out the suckers!

[Logun]

excellent points

[Kasane]

But Pokey, doesn't this go against FTOP? CO most likely has a damned good draw, letting him have odds to draw to the pot for cheap ... oh, wait, it's 3-way, and FTOP really only applies to draws when it's HU (I know that's simplifying it immensely.)

I see it though, because side pot is a potential $40 -- at a quick guess, I think I'd like it better if CO was more likely on a flush rather than a straight draw. His outs often get him there w/o us hitting, unlike a flush draw.

I wish I had the time to plot the two scenarios out, flat call vs push. I think it's fair to say that if we flat call, then CO will be committed to calling $12 more into a pot of that size.

On turn, pot will be 82. BB will have 20 left; Hero and CO will have 44 effective. That leaves an overlay of 24 -- which won't go into the pot on the river unless villain hits (or stupidly calls off with 2pr).

I'm going for the CO most likely having QJ -- it makes the most sense. T9 is out there -- but great, our outs against BB are those. So if he's staying, he's got all of our outs one way or the other.

I'm still leaning towards push. I'd be positive if it wasn't you saying flat call, Pokey. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]