Gutshot against tough, multi-tabling TAG.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
QT and KT got there. Thats quite a few hands if I have Ax.

[/ QUOTE ]

all right, time to bust out pokerstove...

[Oink]

Ya that would be great. I am far from sure that folding Ax is correct on this river.

[rzk]

ok, i tried it with two ranges for bb: one containing some Ax hands and one without (in case bb doesn't 3br with a showdownable Ax hand). i've also discounted low pp's by including only 55 and of course 22. in both cases i seem to get decent equity for AQo - more than enough to make the river call.
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

230 games 0.005 secs 46,000 games/sec

Board: Js 9c 2s 9h Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.130% 39.13% 00.00% 90 0.00 { AhQd }
Hand 1: 60.870% 60.87% 00.00% 140 0.00 { 55, 22, A8s-A5s, KJs-K9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, K2s, Q8s+, Qs7s, Qs6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, J6s+,

Js5s, Js4s, T8s+, Ts7s, Ts6s, 96s+, 87s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, A9o-A5o, KJo-K9o, Q8o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
</pre><hr />

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

182 games 0.005 secs 36,400 games/sec

Board: Js 9c 2s 9h Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.077% 23.08% 00.00% 42 0.00 { AhQd }
Hand 1: 76.923% 76.92% 00.00% 140 0.00 { 55, 22, KJs-K9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, K2s, Q8s+, Qs7s, Qs6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, J6s+, Js5s,

Js4s, T8s+, Ts7s, Ts6s, 96s+, 87s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, A9o, KJo-K9o, Q8o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
</pre><hr />

[Oink]

Ok that was more than expected.

I know its not fair to nitpick when you did all the work. But looking at the 2nd range you need A2, K2s, Q2s. I also think you need to add more pps like 66-88. Prolly a few others that missed.

That said it look like its a call even with those hands in his range.

tyvm!

[rzk]

i tried to discount some of these hands you mentioned because i assumed a decent tag would assume that another decent tag wouldn't 3-barrell non-bluff weak showdownable hands. i also assumed bb would reraise 77 and 88 pf. maybe i'm wrong in some of these assumptions.

[Oink]

Naah I think they should be discounted. But so should some of the weaker draws as it is not every TAG who will play them aggro.

But even adding those hands with full weight will not make this a fold. Its still quite an easy call judging from your stove.