Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL

[West]

Put another way, take any 75 year old Grandma you want, ask her to pick the NFL against the spread, and we'd expect in the long run her to get ~50% right, the same as if you flipped a coin to make picks. It's actually hard to truly be much of a "consistent loser" when you aren't factoring in the juice. A few weeks is just a small sample size. It's highly unlikely, for example, that the various sportswriters in the Enquirer over the years have a cumulative record as bad as say, 40% winners (or even close). That's why if you take Bill Simmons, or a Norman Chad in a season when they pick(ed) every single NFL game every week, they invariably end up with a record very close to .500. And you can't acually "act as the bookie" because you have to pay the juice to make your bets.

[dudeimstoked]

sample size = 4 weeks

no.

[Caldarooni]

F the haters. Do you think everyone jumped on the whole gravity bandwagon when Einstein first showed up? True genius is always met with cynicism. Keep fighting the good fight I say.

[B00T]

[ QUOTE ]
Coin Flips = 50/50% shot.

Your vig: likely -110.

50% <<< 52.4%.

DUCY?

[/ QUOTE ]

FLAWLESS VICTORY.

[Caldarooni]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Coin Flips = 50/50% shot.

Your vig: likely -110.

50% <<< 52.4%.

DUCY?

[/ QUOTE ]

FLAWLESS VICTORY.

[/ QUOTE ]

Idiots, you are failing to take into account TRAP GAMES.

[B00T]

and she could HAS LOCKS

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
are you saying its bad because you think she'll get hot and start to push back to winning closer to half the games?

[/ QUOTE ]


oh my goodness. I don't think you should be betting on anything.

[Daliman]

I will be happy to act as your book for all these games with a reduced juice -107 pricing line on all games.

[dankhank]

i guess i am an idiot for thinking this might work. there is a guy who writes for the new york post, dave blezow, who has had a losing record for 9 of the last 10 years or something ridiculous like that. i have seen him discussed on forums before with some degree of seriousness. obviously you have to use some discretion and line shopping, but this seems like a good way to get at BSP-style picks. it's even better in this case since women don't know anything about sports.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
i guess i am an idiot for thinking this might work. there is a guy who writes for the new york post, dave blezow, who has had a losing record for 9 of the last 10 years or something ridiculous like that. i have seen him discussed on forums before with some degree of seriousness. obviously you have to use some discretion and line shopping, but this seems like a good way to get at BSP-style picks. it's even better in this case since women don't know anything about sports.

[/ QUOTE ]

NO ITS NOT DUCY?

I was torn between that and something about how you're a sexist pig or a comment about sample size being correlated with their small feet for added accuracy.