Passer rating

[kevkev60614]

[ QUOTE ]
kevkev,

Could you post some 2006 quarterback statistics to see how your rating compares with the normal rating? Don't need all their stats obv, just conventional QB rating and your rating.

Let's pick 10 QBs to compare: Brady, Manning, Palmer, Leftwich, VY, Grossman, David Carr, JP Losman, Jeff Garcia and Roethlisberzerswersr.

Edit: I'm not trying to be an ass here, I'm legit curious, but I'm on my parents computer and they don't have Excel. And those QBs aren't random, some of those names are in there for specific reasons.

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Name Current Proposed
Brady 87.9 57.5
Manning 101.0 70.7
Palmer 93.9 66.0
Leftwich 79.0 50.0
VY 66.7 44.2
Grossman 73.9 49.7
David Carr 82.1 46.3
JP Losman 84.9 55.8
Jeff Garcia 95.8 64.6
Roethlisberger 75.4 51.5

Interesting: They're much more lumped around average than I expected. I'd been looking at the stats on a game-by-game basis, not by a season. Probably expected because the proposed range is 2/3 the size of the current range. Maybe that's bad?

Also, by both measures Leftwich was pretty much exactly average. David Carr is slightly above average currently but slightly below according to the proposed measure. Probably due to a relatively high completion percentage (68.3%).

[jogsxyz]

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adjust yards per attempt

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Which should include sacks/rushing yards. Now we only
need to know how to adjust for TDs and INTs.

[Jack of Arcades]

Pro Football Reference/Football Guys adds 10 yards for a td and subtracts 45 for an INT.

[kevkev60614]

Current Proposed Adj YPA
Brady 87.9 57.5 6.26
Manning 101 70.7 7.72
Palmer 93.9 66.0 7.17
Leftwich 79 50.0 5.49
VY 66.7 44.2 4.86
Grossman 73.9 49.7 5.26
David Carr 82.1 46.3 5.29
JP Losman 84.9 55.8 6.09
Jeff Garcia 95.8 64.6 7.02
Roethlisberger 75.4 51.5 5.67

I added Adj YPA for completion's sake. I hadn't ever seen it before but my measure was surprisingly similar. Adj YPA has a lower correlation (based on '06 data only) to victory, and the difference in opposing teams Adj YPA's has a lower correlation to victory, but it's pretty marginal. I don't even know whether those things matter. Meh.

It's also nice that Adj YPA is not capped at all (like passer rating can be capped in four spots and my made-up rating can be capped by 0 or 100). I still kind of feel that a number based on a range from 0-100 makes more intuitive sense to me, but Adj YPA is definitely a simpler number to calculate than passer rating. Meh.

EDIT: The only diff between the top 10 rankings based on my methodology vs Adj YPA is between Grossman and Carr. Who do you think had the better year?

Name Comp Att Pct Y/A Yds TD INT
Grossman 262 480 54.6 6.65 3193 23 20
Carr 302 442 68.3 6.26 2767 11 12

[PokerFink]

Thanks kevkev. I'm gonna re-arrange and clear these up a bit...

Manning: 70.7 - 101
CPalmer: 66.0 - 93.9
JGarcia: 64.6 - 95.8
T Brady: 57.5 - 87.9
JLosman: 55.8 - 82.1
Leftwich: 55.0 - 79.0
Big Ben: 51.5 - 75.4
Grossma: 49.7 - 73.9
David C: 46.3 - 82.1
V Young: 44.2 - 66.7

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Interesting: They're much more lumped around average than I expected.... Maybe that's bad?

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I would adjust the formula so that the range is wider. I like a 0-100 scale, but let's use the whole scale =)

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David Carr is slightly above average currently but slightly below according to the proposed measure. Probably due to a relatively high completion percentage (68.3%).

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That's exactly why I included Carr in the list. Your rating is far more accurate for Carr than conventional QB rating.

[Jeff W]

Sacks should definitely be included.

I prefer to just use an adjusted yards/attempt as completion percentage is too tricky to pin down easily.

(Passing Yards-Sack Yards Lost+10*TD-40*Int)/Attempts

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But then again sacks are more often a function of line play than being a good passer

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Do you have evidence to back up this assertion?

[kevkev60614]

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Sacks should definitely be included.

I prefer to just use an adjusted yards/attempt as completion percentage is too tricky to pin down easily.

(Passing Yards-Sack Yards Lost+10*TD-40*Int)/Attempts

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FTR, I used -45 yards for an interception when calculating the Adj YPA above. If I use -40 instead, the ranking of the ten qbs is the same as the ranking using my methodology.

I don't know whether there's a right answer when it comes to whether sacks should be included in passer rating (my feelings described below). If we were to to include sacks, though, shouldn't an eight yard sack have a greater impact than an eight yard pass completion?

[ QUOTE ]
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But then again sacks are more often a function of line play than being a good passer

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Do you have evidence to back up this assertion?

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I watched the Eagles yesterday. Hyachachachacha!

Seriously, you can look at it either way. A sack can come from a weakness in the offensive line, but then again an interception could come as a result of the QB feeling pressure or a WR tipping the ball up for grabs (freakin Berrian). Football's a team sport and it's hard to hold one player accountable for the outcome of a play. But if our goal is to build an easily calculated statistic to summarize QB play we should focus on only the things the QB can be held as mostly accountable, and I don't think sacks fall into that category.

I think the argument that sacks should be included in the passer rating calculation was formed due to a fear that QBs would begin taking sacks rather than throwing the ball away to improve their ratings to the detriment of their team. But I just don't really see that happening.

[PokerFink]

Sacks really have to be included, since so much of the responsibility falls on the QB. Look at the 2006 Cowboys with Bledsoe vs. Romo. Romo's sack rate was significantly less (like, way, way less) despite playing in the same offense with the same line.

[Boris]

This idea of taking sabermetric concepts and applying them to sports like football and basketball is fairly ridiculous, imo. The performance of a QB is so dependent on other non statistically measurable factors that it makes just as much sense to say I know a good QB when I see one.

I think completion percentage is probably most objective single measurement there is for QB because completion percentage is a reasonable proxy for accuracy. TD's give too much credit to a QB and INT's give too much blame.

[PokerFink]

Boris,

If sabermetric-type stats have a high correlation with winning and predicting future success, then why are they "fairly ridiculous"?