4-way 3b pot with QQ, oy

[rachelwxm]

Given the board and 3 callers PF, I think pushing is not good idea. Although itself is probably +ev given the amount you already invested, but checking imo is better option.

If you push, A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is not folding, so is probably over pair with one heart. Or AA-KK, set, made flush. You dont mind the first group although you are in bad shape against the second group.

There are a good chance someone bet this flop. If action goes like UTG bet and two move in before it gets to you, I think it's an easy laydown. If flop check through, move in on a safe turn.

The problem by betting flop is you are not folding many hands that have odds to call you. Maybe ike low heart draw or straight draw and that's it. But usually when you are called you are in really bad shape especially against 3.

With Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I like it a lot better.

Just my opinion. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[FGators]

Giving a free card should be less of a concern here than in like all other spots. I'd much rather risk the free card than shove and found out that it would have been a better play to react to the action behind me.

[FGators]

It's not going to ruin my day if it checks around and the turn is a K/A/or heart..it may be a blessing in disguise.

[rachelwxm]

The way I think of this :
lets assume folding on flop is 0EV.

Pushing on flop and gets called by heart draw +145, and gets called by set/flush/AA KK ~-rest of your stack.

flop check through there is prob 20% a scare card hit on turn heart or Ace. If flop check through and non scary card hits on turn you can probably assume the rest of your investment is +EV so I estimate EV >70.

Given the frequency someone has you dominated I think check is better.

[Nick Royale]

Meh, the only real reason to check is if someone would stab with something weak, but since any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has the odds to get it in vs our QQ that's not a very good argument.

You guys overestimate the times 2 of the other 3 players have hit the flop hard enough to felt, giving us an opportunity to get away. Otherwise we need to felt anyway.


[ QUOTE ]
It's not going to ruin my day if it checks around and the turn is a K/A/or heart..it may be a blessing in disguise.

[/ QUOTE ]
If it gets checked through we likely had the best hand on the flop because villains will bet better hands than QQ very often on a flop like this.

If it gets checked through we likely gave something like 15-20 outs a freecard in a huge pot costing us $50-$60.


Not that this means a ton, but I think it's a hint that our hands isn't in such a bad shape you guys think:


Board: 9h 5h 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.382% 24.85% 00.53% 314652972 6691390.00 { KK-22, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+, KQo, QJo }
Hand 1: 23.381% 22.94% 00.44% 290436173 5584700.50 { TT-22, AQs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AQo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 2: 23.381% 22.94% 00.44% 290436173 5584700.50 { TT-22, AQs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AQo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 3: 27.856% 27.45% 00.41% 347518250 5149401.00 { QcQd }

[rachelwxm]

Thanks for the reply. I think another reason is that the hands beat QQ will usually bet on this flop with exception of maybe slow played nut flush. Although hands that draws live do not always bet. SO that give hero a chance to reevaluate once action comes back.

I also wonder given the range you assigned, what are chances that at least one vilian has a set/flush/over pair on this flop since I dont use pokerstove very well. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the reply. I think another reason is that the hands beat QQ will usually bet on this flop with exception of maybe slow played nut flush. Although hands that draws live do not always bet. SO that give hero a chance to reevaluate once action comes back.


[/ QUOTE ]
This isn't really a reason to check unless you're folding to the bet. OR you think that at least 2 players will be committed once it gets back to you which I doubt will happen often.


[ QUOTE ]
I also wonder given the range you assigned, what are chances that at least one vilian has a set/flush/over pair on this flop since I dont use pokerstove very well.

[/ QUOTE ]
PS can't do that calc. But the chance that pfr has a flush given my range is 5% and and the limpers 7%. So the chance of at least one of them flopping a flush is about 18%.

There's also a 15% chance of one of them flopping a set. So 67% of the time we're not up against a flush or set.