Prop bet vs the "poker is rigged" believers

[fivefingers]

So what kind of sample size are you planning to use here? I once wanted to establish wether i¨d been as unlucky as i thought over the last 4 months, or simply had been playing badly. With a samplesize of about 20.000 hands i took out the allin-hands i¨d been involved in, and calculated what my average win% should be statistically, and then my actual average win%. The discrepancy was indeed huge, while i SHOULD have won 62% of the hands, i had actually won only 48%.. My point is this, providing you are correct about pokerstars not being rigged, and you´re likely to be, you will need a huge amount of hands to go on, or your prop will have a very high variance.

/edit

unless, as previous poster suggested, you actually play the hands together during the course of the bet, in which case you will have VERY high variance, you need to obtain the handhistories from a third party, or it will be an unfair bet. Having played the hands, you should have a good idea of wether the hands are statistically representative, so you¨d have an unfair advantage. unless you plan to have a very large samplesize indeed anyway.