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#11
09-27-2007, 04:34 PM
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Re: 200PS: When one hand beats you
Quite a few. I think it depends somewhat on propensities to raise wraps UTG, and he's got to be suited.
My real problem with the check-fold line is that I think you're inviting a bluff short-handed. I really like a 1/3-1/2 pot "blocker" bet, at least if you're not the type of player who just always pots the river. I think there's call equity from some losers and it forces villain to have the nuts in order to raise. I do think he has it a lot of the time. I'm assuming villain to be more or less solid but with some typical short-handed gameyness as well. 
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#12
09-28-2007, 12:11 AM
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Re: 200PS: When one hand beats you
[ QUOTE ]
How many hands can Villain actually play this way that don't have 45xx in them? Put it this way, if you're Villain here, do you put Hero on JJxx or better, considering the flop check? You wouldn't call a river bet with other sets? Seems silly to me. [/ QUOTE ] Seriously, the only hand that makes sense here that we beat is 22. This is a combo draw that improved on the turn (likely by turning a wrap) more than half the time. Do you think 88 or 33 checks behind on this flop in an unraised pot? I never see that. Sometimes, people get retardedly stupid with top set, but never with middle set or bottom set. And if I'm villain, I put hero on a set about 90% of the time. With the 3-bet on the turn, it seems obvious that hero has a huge hand and just whiffed a C/R on the flop. When does someone ever 3-bet full pot on the turn fairly deep with two pair or a combo draw? I'm not saying villain won't call with 22 on the river; a lot of players are bad, but if I'm villain, I fold that to the turn 3-bet. A combo draw with 45 seems almost obvious to me, I'm surprised you think it's unlikely.
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#13
09-28-2007, 01:05 AM
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Re: 200PS: When one hand beats you
I think many replies here are clouded by knowing villain had 45.
Also if you watch his videos, he checks the flop a lot, even after raising. :P
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#14
09-28-2007, 01:16 AM
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Re: 200PS: When one hand beats you
[ QUOTE ]
I think many replies here are clouded by knowing villain had 45. Also if you watch his videos, he checks the flop a lot, even after raising. :P [/ QUOTE ] How would I know that. It doesn't say so anywhere in the post? I guess I could've inferred it was likely from the title, but I wasn't even thinking about that when I looked at the hand. Just that the action on previous streets made it a likely holding. Even if the flush came instead of the straight, I think you'd have a better chance of being good here.
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#15
09-28-2007, 02:40 AM
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Re: 200PS: When one hand beats you
Oh god, Ribs is the villain here? Now the river's definitely a check/fold. I seriously think he has the straight over 90% of the time even before you bet. Bet/calling is beyond horrible. If you really need help letting this go, lead for $60 or so first, but you should definitely be dumping this.
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#20
09-28-2007, 11:29 AM
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Re: 200PS: When one hand beats you
[ QUOTE ]
Oh god, Ribs is the villain here? Now the river's definitely a check/fold. I seriously think he has the straight over 90% of the time even before you bet. Bet/calling is beyond horrible. If you really need help letting this go, lead for $60 or so first, but you should definitely be dumping this. [/ QUOTE ] what is it about the way he plays that makes you so sure he has the 54? please explain ofr those of us who have never played with him before
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