FTP $24 - do we shove?

[bwiii]

I would go as low as 66+,AQ push here.

[alex-star]

I guess - it's just that last night the BB (the one that has like 11% roi over 3000 games) insta-called me with AT... so for a second I thought - wtf - that's really wide. SNGPT shows it to be a pretty marginal push if they call with 44+ A9+.

[JacJacAtk]

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Pairs 66 and lower are losers if they call perfectly, or for that matter, too loosely. They've got to be crazy tight to get 22-44 into a pushing range, and as the pushing range extends towards those pairs the calling range gets (correctly) bigger. Even if only BB calls correctly, I think 55/66 is going to be awfully borderline.

All that said, shoving 99 is a no-brainer.

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no way pushing 66 is -EV if they call perfectly.


as for the hand i dont really understand it. i looks like a sng101 push to me unless im being leveled

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I was admittedly roughing it in SNGPT, and 55/66 is right on the borderline and even slight changes in the pushing range make a big difference in what they can call profitably. Plus, there's no accounting for the possibility of overcalls in SNGPT, which though rare are probably significant in an edge case like this.

Certainly below 55 is going to be bad, and given that we can't count on them not accidentally being just a little too loose, I think shoving 55/66 is a bad idea.

And, to the OP, I think I'd expect a good regular, big-stacked in the big blind to call with AT here. Though that'll be near the bottom of his range, it's not likely to be a huge mistake if he thinks you're good and/or a tad too loose.

[rakemeplz]

I ran it in the nash equilibrium calculator, and even the cutoff pushes 3s against supposed theoretically correct calling ranges. So I'd guess you should easily push any pair from the button.

[fluorescenthippo]

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I ran it in the nash equilibrium calculator, and even the cutoff pushes 3s against supposed theoretically correct calling ranges. So I'd guess you should easily push any pair from the button.

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yea i got that 22. its says on the site it estimates i think so its a tiny bit off. usually its good to always push the NE even on the bubble. you need every edge u can take here.