Comm 40: Considered all three turn options

[WMB]

As I said, by the way utg played the hand, a draw seems at least as likely as a made hand (wouldn't he bet out a decent Queen instead of c-raising the field on the flop?). He may have 99, but a draw seems as likely. And if you put him on a draw, calling his flop c-raise with the intention of raising a good turn is the right play.

[Garland]

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As I said, by the way utg played the hand, a draw seems at least as likely as a made hand (wouldn't he bet out a decent Queen instead of c-raising the field on the flop?). He may have 99, but a draw seems as likely. And if you put him on a draw, calling his flop c-raise with the intention of raising a good turn is the right play.

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Ok, there seems to be some sane argument for continuing on the turn. You only have one correct play besides folding and that is to raise.

Some additional thoughts:

(1) I've seen good players or even mediocre players pull the call the flop check-raise, raise the turn with AQ, KQ (even with a 3rd player in the pot). So that is actually not as unbelievable as someone pointed out.

(2) You’re never folding a queen. So if you think there’s a decent chance it’s out there, folding is right.

(3) You're attempting to bluff two people with a turn raise. This can be good and bad.

(a) It's good in the sense that your strength is more believable when you raise with another person in the pot.

(b) It’s bad if button was sitting on a Q or some other big hand and blasts you for a turn 3-bet. It’s bad if UTG actually has a big hand, he’s not folding either. You also have to hope button folds his draw (board pairing may induce him to incorrectly think he’s drawing dead). But UTG is at least calling with a made hand or a draw. So you have to hope he misses too.

I guess part of it is I messed up my play on the flop, and I don't like putting in good money after bad (I already f**ked up, I don’t want to f**k it up anymore), but perhaps once I get to the turn, I should have a different line of thought, like "how can I steal this, if I can?"

But all in all it’s an expensive proposition. Not one without merit, but not one without heavy risks. We’re at the cusp of where we should be thinking in 2nd and 3rd level terms. 20/40, I would never try this. You just get called down too much. 60/120 I think is where you start to get a feel of when this type of play actually works. 40/80 is still the borderline where I feel excessive trickiness is still at its infancy.

I still wouldn't find myself in this situation for I would have check-folded the flop.

Garland

[ShawnHoo]

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A Q9x flop with 2 hearts, and you holding none, seems like one of the worst spots to make a c-bet with AK. I'd consider checking the flop.... but I dunno, I'd probably just bet it out of momentum anyway. And I agree with Andy about the problems with calling the c/r...

That said, you got c/r and called, and now it's 3-handed to the turn. When the top card pairs, it's slightly less likely UTG was c/r a Q, and more likely he has JT or a heart draw. I can see a raise working here -- get button to fold his 9 or 77 or whatever, and get HU with the draw you're ahead of.

Doesn't sound like UTG is so good he'll eliminate a Q from your range based on your flop play. Your line looks like you might have AA too. It's a decent sized pot, and raising this turn has a better than insignificant chance of taking the pot. Of course if UTG 3-bets, you're against a set of 5s and wasted 2BB on a mis-timed move. But making good plays often makes you feel stupid.

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This was what I was thinking during the hand, especially given the type of player UTG is/was. I think folding is the standard play (probably on the flop), but I also hate folding in large pots when I have a sneaking suspicion that the person driving the action is bluffing/drawing.

I ended up winning the hand, but I played it even worse from that point forward, as I just called the turn. (My obviously irrational thought process involved seeing monsters under the bed.) Button folded his hand (he later said he had 77), and I called a blank river and beat Ah6h.

[private joker]

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I can see a raise working here -- get button to fold his 9 or 77 or whatever, and get HU with the draw you're ahead of.

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Button folded his hand (he later said he had 77), and I called a blank river and beat Ah6h.

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Why can't I read hands this well when I play. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]