200 NL, trips against passive player, any value in river raise?

[SABR42]

I guess I should re-word my question.

He can definitely call me with worse. If he happened to slowplay AA/KK he's probably paying me off.

I guess the real question is, do the times he calls with worse offset the times I value-stack myself when he has a better hand?

[BT2]

my original thought was to call, but after reading some of the comments, then re-analyzing the situation i definitely think shoving is the correct move here.

[Mike Kelley]

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He wont fold any better hand here and probably wont call any worse hand.

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This has to be the most overused logic on this forum.



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+1

[effang]

this is 3-handed and he's passive. he probably has something stupid like KQ and doesn't believe your flop and turn bets, especially given your aggro image.

he can definitely show up with lot worse, TT AA KK JJ and other random hands. especially if you've gotten frisky with him, his hand range value may be lowered. of course this is going to be better trips or set some of the times, but that's just a cooler.

[solvine]

he could be on FD which hit the queen on end and is looking for a cheap showdown, hard to say really, if ur image is aggro, then i would probably raise here.Myself i would call due to my kicker.the only problem is that he owuld play trips exactly the same way!

What would you raise to if you were to raise?? i thnk this depends on what u put him on.if he has the queen i reckon he would call another 70-80, if he has a rag pair then he might just call a min raise. if he shoves u r folding right??

[Specialwon]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I should re-word my question.

He can definitely call me with worse. If he happened to slowplay AA/KK he's probably paying me off.

I guess the real question is, do the times he calls with worse offset the times I value-stack myself when he has a better hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you would be calling no matter what, you can disregard the rest of the money on the table. So, you need to beat a coinflip in order to turn a profit on your shove.

Unfortunately, in order to achieve at least coinflip odds, you need him to have a worse hand considerably more often than half the time, because he will fold at least sometimes to your push.

Consider the evidence:

1. He check called every street
2. He is very passive, betting is not something he does.
3. Now he is betting the river.
4. He is going to fold a pair to a bet from you at least some of the time.

On the other side, his bet sizing doesn't exactly scream strength, and yes this can be an overpair, but as I say he will not always stack off.

So in fact it has to be pairs a good deal more often than a better hand, perhaps as much as twice as often, to comepnsate for the times when he folds and its a neutral event.

So, I just call.

[SABR42]

Anyway, I was confused by his weak-lead and just called.

He was bluffing missed [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s so it didn't matter this time.

A raise might have still been correct, I'm not sure.