Advanced Hand Reading Excercise

[fishfather]

utg raise and sb reraise should be pretty premium holdings, though your post indicates both players' ranges are wider than positions suggest.

The action on the flop and turn suggests no one has a hand with much equity, unless sb is going for a check raise on the flop or is getting tricky with a flush draw.

I can't see hero slowplaying an overpair on this board. I can't see hero having a hand with much equity and not betting somewhere. I guess the hand that makes the most sense for hero is 88.

Villain's range is tougher. I can't see him pushing any thing other than a flush on the river 'cause the action thus far suggests no hand with much equity and 'cause 88 for hero seems plausible and likely. And so I'll weight his range more heavily toward akc aqc that missed a check raise on the flop??? Less likely toward a smaller flush that was trying to resteal an utg raise with a 3 bet preflop.

Hand two: it seems like on the flop for the villain 55--88 and 3x are in play unless he is getting tricky with a high overpair. Villain and hero are showing a lot of strength. On the turn hero seems like he has a good overpair and so I put villain on 55, 66, or 3x (a3s; 53s). I probably stack off here with an overpair but should fold to the turn push?

[Christophers]

Awesome, an "advanced" hand reading exercise with raw HHs.

[good2cu]

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Awesome, an "advanced" hand reading exercise with raw HHs.

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If your unethical behavior at the tables is any indication of your personality the last thing I’d want to do is help your poker game.

[good2cu]

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convert hands plz?

if i'm actually going to look for position, stack sizes and such i'd rather not have to hunt for it

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If you could reccomond a good hand conventor that works on all sites I'd be glad to use it in the futrue.

[ipokeder]

wow, this handreading exercise is so advanced!

[good2cu]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, this handreading exercise is so advanced!

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Just becasue you don't like me you don't have to troll my stratgery theards. I think these spots are somewhat harder to read then post since the players involened are both good thinking players and they took nonstandrand lines.

I'll post my thoughs hands about the hands later.

[roo400]

hand 1: hero has 8 and villain has K high str8 or flush
hand 2: hero has air or 88-JJ and villain can have clubbs or AA/KK/66/55/33. As hero, I guess I call with any overpair because villain has clubbs more often than not.

[w33ktight]

In hand one I think hero almost always has a straight, since villain knows this I think he could be bluffing, and given the history I think he could have also checked the fd on the flop then checked a flush to disguise his hand?? Probably a flush more often than a bluff.

In hand two I think hero almost always has an overpair, villain mostly has a hand like 54s, 64s, maybe 77, 88, or clubs. and full houses. If I were hero I know I would call with most overpairs, but honestly I can't say where I would draw the line unless I was at the table.

[DJ Sensei]

Something just rubs me the wrong way about analyzing hands where I dont know either player's holecards, but I can't put forth a good reasoning as to why. Also, this feels a lot like homework for some reason, and I stopped doing that once I became a grownup.

But, I guess i'll give it a go...

1) I don't think villain has a flush. With stacks still to put in given the pot size, I doubt he'd check twice with both the flush draw and the made flush. Also seems unlikely that he'd value 3-bet with a set or overpair, so KQ or 87 seems most likely. Hero probably doesnt have the flush either, I think his range is a little weaker here, but if he was bluffing the river, why a minraise that was likely to get called? I think he's got a thin value hand here like maybe T9 or J9, trying to squeeze a little out of one pair hands. Rarely will he call the shove, unless the villain is capable of a 3bet shove bluff on the river, given this action (few are, and few should be). Hero could also easily have a straight here, and will of course call the shove if he does.


2) Hero likely has an overpair and will stack it off, or complete air. Once villain calls the c/r and hero fires again, air is a lesser part of his range but still possible. Hero shouldn't be making this turn bet with any normal-strength or combo drawing hand, because of the potential for being shoved on and having to either stack off behind or make a gross fold with much of their stack in the middle. Villain likely has a draw, or a mid pair that didn't believe the c/r. This isn't a good turn if hero expects villain to fold his hand to the turn bet, so, hero's range is stronger now. Villain will likely end up stacking off any big draw here, and folding naked mid pairs unless he's feeling suspicious for some reason.

[ChrisV]

Hand 1: If Hero has a legitimate hand here, it should be KQ or better. I really dislike raising an 8 here as you will get pwned by better hands more than you get called by worse ones.
However I also don't think that Hero should have a flush much at all here. If he flopped a flush draw his hand should mostly be something like AKcc, AQcc or KQcc, all of which should probably bet the flop.

If Hero thinks Villain stabs at river a lot, he may be trying to rebluff Villain with a hand that didn't want to bet earlier streets. This might make sense with something like AK or AQ.

There are 15 combos of KQ here, and 30 combos of AK/AQ (excluding the flush hands). However I don't think Hero takes this line with AK/AQ more than like 1 in 6 times. Flushes should be about as likely as that (at a pure guess), so that's like:

60% KQ
20% flush
20% bluff

Villain's hand range depends heavily on what he thinks he can make Hero fold. I'm guessing their history isn't such that he thinks he can make Hero fold KQ, so he probably has the flush most of the time here.

Hand 2 I'm not going to look at, because the range of that flop CR from Hero varies hugely from player to player. (For example, versus players who don't know me well, that CR from me is AK like always. However when I'm OOP to a LAG who could have anything and might suspect me of kidding around with him, I'm not super keen to bloat the pot unless I'm committed, so the CR is very likely to be KK, AA or a full/quads).