Donk bet on the river by a TAG

[jba]

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if we're beat it's almost 100% of the time because the river helped him. i'm assuming aces up besides A7 would have c/r the turn or earlier. most of the strong hands that beat us (J9/77) would have gone for a c/r at least some of the time so they should be discounted. this looks like a raise to me but it's close. but I would raise.

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I would think he played a draw this way or something like 78 which he hit. How often do we need to be right to be +ev with the raise?

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it's very tough for him to 3 bet with 87, T7, A7. not so tough with J9/77. if you don't feel the need to call a 3bet (i absolutely do not), only about 50-55%. if you can't fold you need to be right only about 55-60 depending on how we weight things.

[yourface]

raise
I think his range here is [A2-A4,A6,A9, A7,87,T7]

stove says we have 63% equity vs that range. we might not even get 3bet by 87 T7

I think we can fold to a raise

edit: this is assuming he is going to call with his aces

[bobhalford]

I hate lines where I raise and have to fold to a 3-bet. Therefore I just call, because I have to give credit to the TAG for A7 or J9. I tend to give players too much credit, but as I said, I hate raise/fold lines because I don't trust anyone online. Also, perhaps this is just specific to me, but I notice players make ridiculous plays at me on the turn and river because they see me folding a lot. It's just unreal the types of plays these goons make. I need to record them and post in the LC thread. It seems at 3/6 and 5/10 a very common play to be bluff raising me on the river with total garbage, no pair no draw type hands.