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#11
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Question....so if we call the turn and miss the River and he bets enough to shove in our last $5, we are ok folding when we are getting 3+:1? [/ QUOTE ] Do you think we are winning this hand >25% UI ? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. If we want to think he will always have a Q or flush draw on the flop ok do so, but I dont feel its the case here. He raised PF and called our 3b. His range here might be 88+, so 99 and JJ are huge possibilities, AK is another one, KJ also. Why didnt he raise flop?? maybe he was "trapping" in his mind, we know we would have him beat. In fact, only flush draw I can see has us beat here is AQ hearts, or maybe AT hearts, other than that he has no FD. And I believe most of the time, any of those flush draws probably raise the flop, what other flush draw is he supposed to have here T8h, no he probably dumps that PF also. So his range is much wider here than Q or flush, and we by no way are gonna fold almost 4-1 odds on the river, so by calling and check/folding (terrible play IMO) or calling and then c/c, we would be losing some possible value of worse hands that might just check behind the river, while he might bet with better hands, not to mention the Qh might be hitting just to make it terrible.What I mean is, if he has a straight or flush he bets and we will not fold, but if he has something like KJ, AK, 99, he might check behind and we lose value. So IMO the best line here is just to 3b shove the turn, if he has us beat, we have tons of outs there to save the day. |
#12
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hadnt seen this last part of the post. You cannot fold now either, with those huge odds, quick call I guess.
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#13
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Question....so if we call the turn and miss the River and he bets enough to shove in our last $5, we are ok folding when we are getting 3+:1? [/ QUOTE ] Do you think we are winning this hand >25% UI ? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. If we want to think he will always have a Q or flush draw on the flop ok do so, but I dont feel its the case here. He raised PF and called our 3b. His range here might be 88+, so 99 and JJ are huge possibilities, AK is another one, KJ also. Why didnt he raise flop?? maybe he was "trapping" in his mind, we know we would have him beat. In fact, only flush draw I can see has us beat here is AQ hearts, or maybe AT hearts, other than that he has no FD. And I believe most of the time, any of those flush draws probably raise the flop, what other flush draw is he supposed to have here T8h, no he probably dumps that PF also. So his range is much wider here than Q or flush, and we by no way are gonna fold almost 4-1 odds on the river, so by calling and check/folding (terrible play IMO) or calling and then c/c, we would be losing some possible value of worse hands that might just check behind the river, while he might bet with better hands, not to mention the Qh might be hitting just to make it terrible.What I mean is, if he has a straight or flush he bets and we will not fold, but if he has something like KJ, AK, 99, he might check behind and we lose value. So IMO the best line here is just to 3b shove the turn, if he has us beat, we have tons of outs there to save the day. [/ QUOTE ] I completely agree with your thoughts however the question is what he will call a turn shove with. I think he will fold all hands that we beat and shoving the turn will just allow him to play perfectly. |
#14
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getting 3-1, Im pretty sure he will only fold his 100% crap hands, which probably are not that much in this scenario. I see him calling with something like AhK, and set of 9s, Js, Ts, would be calling also. I dont think he can make huge laydowns with such odds. 3-1 are huge odds for practically every single one of his holdings.
And also, good thing for shoving is not giving a free heart here or a Q,as happened in the hand. |
#15
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That bastard...why doesn't he just shove FFS!!1!
I think we have to call this here. $2.30 is either the lamest value bet ever or a scared hand (JJ,99,QX)trying to get *something*. |
#16
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I still fold. You dont beat anything that got to the river and still wants to bet. He is not bluffing here > 20% of the time.
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