6.50 - 88 on Bubble, 3 identical stacks with CL pushing

[kamel]

If he is really shoving any2 call it.
If you aren't sure about or you don't like variance, fold it.

Standard would be against a very aggressive chipleader pusher (who probably shoves with any2! that's important, if he's not so loose you will need something like JJ+) to call with 99+,AQs+ and in the BB with 77+,AJs+. But I don't have a SnG Wizard here at the moment, so I could be wrong at this specific situation.

When in doubt, but you think BB is very aggressive, I advice usually to call out of BB with TT+,AKs and in the BB with 99+, AQs+. These ranges are relatively robust to different pushing ranges villain might have.

Here in this place, even if I assume he would shove any2, I'd still fold it a lot unless the 2 other bubble guys are really good (and they aren't in a $6.50). Usually people are making a lot of expensive mistakes at the bubble, and it's often worth there to wait for a better spot or for a big mistake of the other guys. As you have a nice stack of 7BBs and will be in BU/CO next hands, you also can afford to wait here.

[winningfish]

[ QUOTE ]
60% of the prize pool is awarded once the bubble bursts. Missing out on that with 4 players left is devastating.

There are a ton of spots where I'd slightly lower my chances of winning the whole thing if it significantly increased my chances of making the final 3.

Feel free to tell me why this is backwards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, just stop with embarrassing yourself. If you're going to advocate a fold, at least give sensible reasons like the post from kamel. You do know that players like you who freeze up on the bubble thinking only "I must survive till the final 3 I don't wanna finish 4th", 9 times out of 10 finish 4th against sharks right?

[Brocktoon]

Thanks for the in-depth analysis, sir.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
60% of the prize pool is awarded once the bubble bursts. Missing out on that with 4 players left is devastating.

There are a ton of spots where I'd slightly lower my chances of winning the whole thing if it significantly increased my chances of making the final 3.

Feel free to tell me why this is backwards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, just stop with embarrassing yourself. If you're going to advocate a fold, at least give sensible reasons like the post from kamel. You do know that players like you who freeze up on the bubble thinking only "I must survive till the final 3 I don't wanna finish 4th", 9 times out of 10 finish 4th against sharks right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude you're the one who is embarrassing yourself.

[tercet]

I dont think its a snap call in this situation, the dude hasnt been abusing the big stack at all. I thought the fold was fine, but others here tend to disagree.

[Fammy]

I think Kamel hit it on the head. Though this is a close call depending on ranges of his push I believe THE KEY piece that has to come into play is that the hero would be taking a borderline situation and giving up on the chance that the players at this level may likely make such terrible mistakes that the hero almost can't help but to have a higher +EV just by sticking around and allowing the mistakes to occur. If I am in this situation, I am looking at this and thinking that, assuming the cards are relatively even, I probably have a better than expected share of equity just based on being a little patient...it is fairly likely that one or more of these guys is going to implode quickly as many players at this level just aren't that great at bubble play. Short of having information to the contrary on these players, I let this one go and go back to blind stealing and playing smart while watching for opportunities to take advantage of huge mistakes.

Fammy

[KEW]

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INSTAcall. Do you want to place 3rd or win? You're not going to get a better chance to go into money as the big stack than this.

[/ QUOTE ]

This the an SNG, the bubble is significant. Correct me if I'm wrong but with 4 people left not finishing 4th is a higher priority than getting 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

You couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Brockton here...

Not finishing 4th is key...This is not the time with 88 to either take a coin flip or be in an easily dominated position...We will be dominated by a larger pair far more often then we dominate a lower pair..Button has not been overly aggro and we are clearing the blinds thus ahead of the other short stacks...

There is a major difference between being the raiser vs the caller..Nor IMO does a double up in this situation increases our likely hood of winning 1st to justify the risk of bubbling out..

[sence25]

Actually I like a fold here.
We don't play for first, we play for max$$$$$$$$$$$$.

[Scotty_12]

This is breakeven with button shoving 55% ... im not sure how bad people play in $6.5s but I think its probably best to lay it down in this spot unless button has been superagressive on the bubble. If our stack was maybe 2000 I wouldnt mind a call with 8s, if our hand was TT t hen it would be breakeven with button pushing 18%, with 99 its breakeven when button shoves 34%

I think laying this down is best, we c an find muc h better spots, and t he oppnents might make a mistake which freerolls us into the money

[CheeseMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
60% of the prize pool is awarded once the bubble bursts. Missing out on that with 4 players left is devastating.

There are a ton of spots where I'd slightly lower my chances of winning the whole thing if it significantly increased my chances of making the final 3.

Feel free to tell me why this is backwards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, just stop with embarrassing yourself. If you're going to advocate a fold, at least give sensible reasons like the post from kamel. You do know that players like you who freeze up on the bubble thinking only "I must survive till the final 3 I don't wanna finish 4th", 9 times out of 10 finish 4th against sharks right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude you're the one who is embarrassing yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]