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  #11  
Old 09-16-2007, 02:32 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 15,430
Default Re: Easy way to play 88 UTG here?

If you push and isolate, you are 69% against a random hand. There will be 6700 in the pot, so your expected gain is 3000.

There are 7 players to act. Let us assume that JJ-AA and AQs, AK are calling. Assume for simplification only one caller and caller has you covered.

You are 28.5% to win the main pot and 35% to win the side pot. The main pot is 8300 and your expected win is 2365. The side pot has 26800 and your expected in is 9380. Total expected win if called is 11740. Total net loss if called is 3360.

The calling range I gave happens 22/661 of the time for each player, so 154/661 for 7 players, less with some duplication, so you get called about 22% of the time.

So assuming a tight calling range, the push is clearly cEV+ compared to folding. I think this is an accurate range due to the bubble and the push looking stronger with the BB allin.

I am not certain whether limping or miniraising is better than pushing, but I was wrong previously, folding is bad, even with the BB allin.

The push is only playable here because the large ante live gives you a big expected gain by isolating even if you don't steal.
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  #12  
Old 09-16-2007, 09:50 PM
NicksDad1970 NicksDad1970 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
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Default Re: Easy way to play 88 UTG here?

I bet 5k, folded to a woman in LP who went all in for 4k more. I called she had AA and it held up. The next hand I was BB, 2 limpers and I went all in for 4200 more I think it was, First limper folds second calls for almost his whole stack with A-10 os.

Flop - K-9-9
turn x
river K

I'm out.

I think I played the 88 pretty close to correct. I was only thinking maybe raising a little less allows me to fold.

Someone had it right IMO when saying if I could get away from 88 I still have a healthy stack while others are forced to do an all in fest. Then I can hopefully make a position steal or two and win it.

I wasn't shooting for just making the money.

I'm interested in hearing from people who play these type tourneys too $100ish entry fees with 15-20 min blinds where the blinds run up pretty fast. I really think that makes a difference.

Thanks for everyones advice and input
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