Bad beat after slow playing nuts with pot sized bet left

[pete fabrizio]

i think there was nothing wrong with this slowplay with little more than 1 psb left.

[betgo]

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i think there was nothing wrong with this slowplay with little more than 1 psb left.

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I wasn't sure because my risk by slowplaying is not that great, but also the potential gain is small. Against villain's hand, I was 90% on the flop and 68% on the turn. In terms of cEV, it is about the same if I take it down on the flop or get allin on the turn versus the flush draw and gutshot.

[Slap My Jack]

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i think there was nothing wrong with this slowplay with little more than 1 psb left.

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I wasn't sure because my risk by slowplaying is not that great, but also the potential gain is small. Against villain's hand, I was 90% on the flop and 68% on the turn. In terms of cEV, it is about the same if I take it down on the flop or get allin on the turn versus the flush draw and gutshot.

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Put that way, the hand seems more interesting---as in not just a bad beat leveling.

But think of all the times he'll put more money in with worse than a FD+GS. Your equity is probably good here on the turn always, if not even better very often. He could put it in with two pair, a set, a gutshot, naked flush, TPTK that might or might not have another draw to go with it, etc.

And in terms of cEV, it may not amount to much, but don't you play better with some more chips to throw around? You also last a little longer, or can win more chips with a bigger stack.

[RoundTower]

well he probably doesn't have more than 4 outs on the flop, or he would prefer to bet himself. It's also unlikely he was trap checking - there aren't many reasonable combinations of 2 pair or set, and AA prob pushes preflop, so you don't have to worry much about him getting scared off on the turn from a hand he would have stacked off with on the flop.

He might have a gutshot, most likely A3 or A5. I think giving him a free card is OK - he might bluff, semibluff, or value shove the worse hand on the turn.

[gordo16]

Given your re-raise preflop, I think that the flop check is pretty terrible, especially given that you are in a tournament. I think that it's pretty safe to assume that your raise gives the impression of KKxx or AAxx. AAxx is not going to check behind on a dry K42 flop when they really only have one bet flop. The only hand that could reasonably do this or KKxx or some donk raise preflop that completely missed and has just given up on the hand. That being said, a good player is only going to get their money in on the turn with a lot of outs, knowing that they are probably up against top set. Just bet the pot on the flop and take it down next time.

[pete fabrizio]

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i think there was nothing wrong with this slowplay with little more than 1 psb left.

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I wasn't sure because my risk by slowplaying is not that great, but also the potential gain is small. Against villain's hand, I was 90% on the flop and 68% on the turn. In terms of cEV, it is about the same if I take it down on the flop or get allin on the turn versus the flush draw and gutshot.

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you mean flush draw and open-ender? so in this case your slowplay was demonstrably profitable, even if only a little. but a lot of times you'll end up getting the money in on the turn in even better shape.

[FireStorm]

For the love of God just bet the flop.

[RoundTower]

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That being said, a good player is only going to get their money in on the turn with a lot of outs, knowing that they are probably up against top set. Just bet the pot on the flop and take it down next time.

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I don't know, what if the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes off instead - do you think he just check folds? It's pretty hard not to just stick it in there with the QJT hand.

Also I wouldn't expect an unknown opponent in a PLO donkament to be "a good player". AFAIR villain is a slightly nitty multitabling reg from $200 or $400 PLO, this probably makes him one of the better players in the field.