What is your biggest recovery in a HU SNG? *low content*

[PrimordialAA]

yea, i've come back from 20, doubled to 40, folded my next hand to put me at 30 again, and won [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Indiana]

if you play enough games, you will eventually come back and win from 20....and you will get beat from a guy that comes back from 20. I dont know the exact sample size to observe this, but i'd guestimate that it happens every 5K games or so with high probability.

Indy

[jay_shark]

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if you play enough games, you will eventually come back and win from 20....and you will get beat from a guy that comes back from 20. I dont know the exact sample size to observe this, but i'd guestimate that it happens every 5K games or so with high probability.

Indy

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If two opponents have equal abilities , then the probability you come back from 20 chips to win is 20/3000 = 0.006666

However , this has to be conditioned on the probability that you will be down to 20 chips and that you would come back to win it . The probability you are down to 20 chips at some point is approximately 1/2 and depending on your style it may be much less than that .

The approximate probability you come back from a 20 chip deficit is about 1/2*20/3000 = 0.0033333333 or about 3 times every 1000 sng's .

[PLO8FaceKilla]

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Ive come back from 20, Ive also had a villain come back from 10 chips.

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same here.

With HU PLO8 which makes it pretty frustrating.

[ChicagoRy]

jay shark, there has to be something wrong with your math if the probability that you will be down to 20 chips at some point is 1/2.

If the probability that you or your opponent (assuming equal ability or near) come back 3/1000 times that you get down to 20, it has to be well over 1/3000, probably more than that, that it actually happens.

[xSCWx]

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jay shark, there has to be something wrong with your math if the probability that you will be down to 20 chips at some point is 1/2.


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Yeah, I'm pretty sure that calculation was for 20 chips and or less (0).

[jay_shark]

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jay shark, there has to be something wrong with your math if the probability that you will be down to 20 chips at some point is 1/2.

If the probability that you or your opponent (assuming equal ability or near) come back 3/1000 times that you get down to 20, it has to be well over 1/3000, probably more than that, that it actually happens.

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Well I just used 1/2 as the probability you will lose the match which is NOT equal to the probability that you will be down to 20 chips . So what you would have to do is estimate the likelihood that you will be down to 20 chips then multiply that number by 20/3000 .

Maybe you get down to 20 chips about 1 in 10 tries ?
If that's the case , then you would multiply 1/10*20/3000 = 0.000666 or about 6 times for every 10 000 sngs .

I'm just throwing numbers out of the hat but I'm sure you understand my point .

[jay_shark]

Personally , I rarely get that low unless I just lost a big pot on my previous hand . Usually i'm all in or fold when i'm short-stacked like that so the likelihood I get to 20 chips is really low .

[ChicagoRy]

Agreed with the above, I would guess that Indy's estimate is actually within the neighborhood of how often this happens, but that is only a guess.

Playing badly and limping with like 5bbs, etc. will get you to 20 chips more often, but if you do that kind of stuff you'll likely not comeback as often.

[Insane_Steve]

My best almost comeback was me being down to 10 chips in a STT (Lost something like AK < QQ or something AIPF, some sort of race) and crawled back to about 4,000 before losing something like AT < A6 or some dumb hand where I had him dominated but the undercard obv hits like every time.

I think my best actual comeback was from about 50 chips in a PLO hi tournament. My worst opponent loss was from 90 chips, in an FPP sat to the Sunday Million.