$16 bubble, A,K

[Anna.]

That's the problem I have with ICM. It assumes that all players play correctly, right? Maybe not.

I'm sure CO is pushing all A, and K hands, but not so sure about Q,J, or 10 hands.

[martinimagic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Very interesting spot.

Its an easy call if the SB calls (8.9%, 66+ ATs+ ATo+), but we fold AKo if SB folds (2.1%, JJ+ AKs).

ICM Calculator Results

[/ QUOTE ]

AKs/JJ is a call if sb folds? I doubt CO would push this wide (17.0%, 22+ A7s+ A5s-A4s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ J9s+ T9s).


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. CO would be making a really bad move to push wide here. CO is on the wrong side with the risk of Button waking up with a monster pair and busting him. You have to remember how tight hands get since a bust is out of the money. CO is in good chip shape with his stack and still has time. He's pushing a tight range. I am folding this and letting the SB take his chances.

[deepextragully]

[ QUOTE ]

Snap call followed by fist pump

[/ QUOTE ]

[plexiq]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Very interesting spot.

Its an easy call if the SB calls (8.9%, 66+ ATs+ ATo+), but we fold AKo if SB folds (2.1%, JJ+ AKs).

ICM Calculator Results

[/ QUOTE ]

AKs/JJ is a call if sb folds? I doubt CO would push this wide (17.0%, 22+ A7s+ A5s-A4s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ J9s+ T9s).


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. CO would be making a really bad move to push wide here. CO is on the wrong side with the risk of Button waking up with a monster pair and busting him. You have to remember how tight hands get since a bust is out of the money. CO is in good chip shape with his stack and still has time. He's pushing a tight range. I am folding this and letting the SB take his chances.

[/ QUOTE ]

CO's pushing range is profitable given the pushing/calling/overcalling-ranges (& possible actions) behind him.

That means if you are arguing CO is pushing too loose here, you are actually saying the calling ranges of players behind are too tight, or the other players pushing ranges are too loose. (Or any other change that would make folding more profitable for the CO,..)

I don't think CO's push range is all that loose, note how hands like A6s/A9o aren't even pushed.

But if you think the calculator gives a weak approximation of correct play here, i'll be glad to discuss the hand in detail (and maybe fix the calculation if we actually find a mistake).

[martinimagic]

The calculator is dead on here, but the potential of busting with the second largest stack is going to tighten up his range considerably. One of the biggest mistakes at the bubble is underestimating the weight of potentially busting. The calculator is beautiful, but the actual ranges for the CO are just going be tighter in my opinion.

[HajiShirazu]

I think this is a call but it's actually close. I would be pushing really tight as the CO here.