NL10-AQs squeeze and flop play

[Student Caine]

If you scroll over the player it should give you expanded stats including att to steal.

In any event, I am really not excited about building a big pot oop with a trouble hand like this.

[cubase]

3-bet all day long. Never fold this to 18/10.

18/10. Let's look at that.

10% = 22+, AQo+, ATs+ JTs+ KJs, KTs, QTs.

When you bet the flop, if he has tight (nitty?) stats as described, when you lead the flop, he's folding over 75% of his range to you.

Bet slightly more on flop and enjoying taking your pot down on this nice dry board most of the time.

Also enjoy your meta-game when you get looked up lighter and you have AA.

Edit: Just wanted to point out, he is also calling your raise with a wider range because he has position. He probably still calls you with 80% of his raising range, including almost all pocket pairs and most of his suited connected broadways.

Disclaimer: Because the only real information we have is "tight" and 18/10, this analysis is subject to change with new information. We can, however, also add in "weak" because 18/10 means he is limping a lot of hands that he should be raising because he isn't comfortable playing them post-flop in a raised pot. My general speculation and 10nl cents.

[mookboi]

Very standard, as someone said, I cbet a bit more.

PF 3bet is very standard here. His attempt to steal blind % matters a lot. If it's like 30+, I'm 3betting him here with any pair, AJs+, AQ+, even KQs & scs if ya wanna mix it up. Once he called, he folds a lot of his range to yer cbet as cubase pointed out. Good job.

[ICMoney]

My CB are 2/3 to 3/4 or more in a raised pot.

I think 2/3 is fine for a 3b pot.

Standard.

[albedoa]

This is the most standard 3-bet ever. Student Caine is the type of player who I love having on my left. That's a lot of free money.

[Student Caine]

Wow, I am glad that I actually commented on this thread. To me this is a marginal EV spot, but it appears that my thinking may be incorrect, which is most likely driven by my underestimation of the fold equity that we really have here. I will definitely need to re-assess my play from the blinds in these types of situations.

In order to help with this though, I would like to pose a couple of questions:

1. Are we safe in arbitrarily assigning positional awareness to a 10NL villain? If we are able to look at his Att. to steal and see that it shows him as positionaly aware (i.e., it is high), then I would be more comfortable with opening up his hand range. But it seems that most of the other posters were very sure of the fact that this late position raise was most likely a steal - was this because villain was "tight"? Because it seems logical to me that a tight villain is less likely to make a steal in this position than a loose villain.

2. Are we safe in using villains preflop stats to assume postflop ability? Granted this is 10NL, so he is probably fairly weak post flop, but is it correct to use the fact that he is 18/10 preflop as justification for this read?

3. Is there any board that we would not c-bet on the flop? Are we folding to any type of pressure on the flop?

Thanks all.

[Student Caine]

Sounds good man. Just lemme' know where you play and your SN's and I'll be sure to sit to your left as often as I can. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[albedoa]

[ QUOTE ]
Sounds good man. Just lemme' know where you play and your SN's and I'll be sure to sit to your left as often as I can. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be way more convenient for me if we skipped the last part and you just shipped me the money.

[AceKicker06]

is this the part where you play hu for rolls?

[Student Caine]

hahahah...gimme a chance for some rakeback at least [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]