Eagles vs Redskins Monday Night Football Week 2

[Assani Fisher]

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the Giants are at home vs GB...both should be favored

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Eli, Jacobs, Osi are all out

I doubt NYG are a favorite vs GB I'd expect GB to win by a decent margin

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FWIW sportsbook.com has the Giants as a 1 point favorite. I will say thats closer than I expected(I thought it'd be around 3).

[Homer]

Redskins +7 is the right side. The Eagles season isn't done if they lose, but it will be very difficult to make the playoffs after tanking during the "easy" part of the schedule. I see a close, sloppily played game. Hopefully the Eagles pull it out.

[PokerFink]

Hey Assani,

First of all, where you been? I've seen like zero NFL posts from you.

-7 could be a touch high, -6 seems right. As for NY/GB, I would jump all over GB+1. NY has no pass rush whatsoever, and Favre will look a lot sharper given time. On the flip side, GB has an excellent rush, and we all know what Eli does under pressure. The DAL and NY offenses aren't nearly as good as they looked last night.

Ok, back to next week. Is this a must win for Philly? No. Week 2 is never a must win. It wasn't that long ago (2003) that Philly dropped their first two games and everyone panicked, only to see them finish 13-3. But it's a divisional game against the team that I think is 2nd best, so sure it's an important game.

[PokerFink]

Re: Luck Factor

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These past few seasons, Philly constantly seems to be on the bad end of the "we outplayed them and still lost" scenario. After a while, it becomes an expectation and not a fluke imo.

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This is self-contradicting. It can't be both unlucky/fluky and an expectation. It's either one or the other, so which is it?

Well it depends on the game. The Tampa game was a complete fluke. Tampa won on a 62 yard field goal as time expired. If it misses, the Eagles win. The kicker has maybe a 5% or 10% chance to make that kick. So no matter how you slice it, the Eagles got incredibly unlucky to lose that game.

The New York game had a lot of bad luck, but the Eagles compounded that with mistakes and penalties. The ball bouncing 20 yards backwards for a touchdown was bad luck, but the Eagles didn't help themselves in that game. They deserve some, but not all of the blame.

The Green Bay game was not bad luck. The Eagles lost the Green Bay game. Once again, the ball bouncing 25 yards backwards for a touchdown was bad luck. But that play never, ever should have happened. Likewise, the JR Reed muff never, ever should have happened. I don't think the Eagles were all that unlucky in this game - they outplayed the Packers, but not by that much, and they fumbled that advantage and the game away. That's their own fault.

[PokerFink]

Re: Lito Sheppard and Shawn Springs

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I actually didn't know that before you mentioned it, and I agree that is very big. I read that Will James will replace him and Joselio Hansen will play when they go nickel...is that correct? If so, how good are they? If the Skins go 3 wide, do you think the Eagles will have major problems covering Moss, Randle El, Lloyd, and Cooley all at once?

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This is very big for the Eagles if he misses significant time. Last year they had more depth with Rod Hood, but he is gone. Brown and Will James will start, with Hansen as the nickle. Their dime will either be Quintin Mikell or they will pick up someone this week (likely Nick Graham who originally made the team).

Will James is a solid nickle and an adequate #2 starter. Hansen is a mediocre dime and a bad nickle. Mikell, despite being a career backup safety, is experienced and good in coverage. He could start for a lot of teams. He would be fine as the dime corner.

Can the Eagles cover the Skins if they go three or four wide? The Eagles don't play a standard cover-2. They will counter with both heavy blitz packages and heavy zone packages. Randle El and Lloyd are not good enough recievers that it will be easy to exploit the Eagles defensive backs consistantly. The loss of Sheppard will lead to some extra passing yards for Campbell and perhaps one big play, but it won't completely change the game.

As for the Redskins, the biggest improvement their defense got this year is getting Shawn Springs back healthy, not the additions of Smoot, McIntosh etc. But as usual, they lack depth. If their defense stays healthy, it should be pretty good, but they can't hold up to injuries. But even healthy, the Redskins defense is not as good as Green Bay. The Eagles offense should be better than this week.

[Vyse]

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I also think its possible that Philly totally outplays the Skins and Philly still loses by a bunch of "flukes." These past few seasons, Philly constantly seems to be on the bad end of the "we outplayed them and still lost" scenario. After a while, it becomes an expectation and not a fluke imo. Theres a reason why teams like Chicago, Pittsburgh, New England, etc. constantly win "lucky" games, while teams like Philly and Indy(before last year of course) constantly seem to lose them.

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Yeah, anything's possible.

So a bunch of random flukes strung together = no longer random flukes? So a bunch of bad beats = no longer bad beats but rigged? Uh no. The key word is "seems"; in actuality it's not true.

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As for the change since last year, our secondary is much improved having added Landry and Smoot.

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rofl Smoot is so bad and lost his job due to sucking so hard last season in Minny. So one rookie has much improved the secondary.

lol @ using yardage to judge anyone's defense.

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[Assani Fisher]

Hey PF. Nice to hear from you. Wanna join me and Robert at some bar on Monday night?


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Hey Assani,

First of all, where you been? I've seen like zero NFL posts from you.


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Been a bit busy with the move to Vegas and playing poker a lot since I got here.

Some quick NFL season views(all made before season started):

Surprise team: Tennessee
Disappointing team: Chicago(note: I don't count NYG or KC as potential disappointing teams even though they made playoffs last year)
Super Bowl: Pats over Dallas(really tough to pick from the crapload in the NFC though....basically flip a coin there)
ROY: Calvin Johnson(very tough choice over AD)
MVP: Tom Brady


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-7 could be a touch high, -6 seems right

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agreed


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As for NY/GB, I would jump all over GB+1. NY has no pass rush whatsoever, and Favre will look a lot sharper given time. On the flip side, GB has an excellent rush, and we all know what Eli does under pressure. The DAL and NY offenses aren't nearly as good as they looked last night.


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I don't think you're taking into account home field advantage, especially the first home game of the year. GB had it last week, NY didn't...that played a major role. Now obviously its flip flopped. I'd be willing to bet you on that one...nothing serious, but maybe a friendly $50 or so.


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Ok, back to next week. Is this a must win for Philly? No. Week 2 is never a must win. It wasn't that long ago (2003) that Philly dropped their first two games and everyone panicked, only to see them finish 13-3. But it's a divisional game against the team that I think is 2nd best, so sure it's an important game.


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agreed


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This is self-contradicting. It can't be both unlucky/fluky and an expectation. It's either one or the other, so which is it?

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I put "unlucky" and "fluke" in quotations because I wasn't using those words....thats what it seems as if Eagles fans use often recently.


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Well it depends on the game. The Tampa game was a complete fluke. Tampa won on a 62 yard field goal as time expired. If it misses, the Eagles win. The kicker has maybe a 5% or 10% chance to make that kick. So no matter how you slice it, the Eagles got incredibly unlucky to lose that game.

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Yes, I remember having this conversation last year. I forget exactly what, but I think that Philly did something just as improbable a play or two before that kick so I thought it evened out....many Eagles fans disagreed with me.


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This is very big for the Eagles if he misses significant time. Last year they had more depth with Rod Hood, but he is gone. Brown and Will James will start, with Hansen as the nickle. Their dime will either be Quintin Mikell or they will pick up someone this week (likely Nick Graham who originally made the team).

Will James is a solid nickle and an adequate #2 starter. Hansen is a mediocre dime and a bad nickle. Mikell, despite being a career backup safety, is experienced and good in coverage. He could start for a lot of teams. He would be fine as the dime corner.

Can the Eagles cover the Skins if they go three or four wide? The Eagles don't play a standard cover-2. They will counter with both heavy blitz packages and heavy zone packages. Randle El and Lloyd are not good enough recievers that it will be easy to exploit the Eagles defensive backs consistantly. The loss of Sheppard will lead to some extra passing yards for Campbell and perhaps one big play, but it won't completely change the game.

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interesting analysis


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As for the Redskins, the biggest improvement their defense got this year is getting Shawn Springs back healthy, not the additions of Smoot, McIntosh etc. But as usual, they lack depth. If their defense stays healthy, it should be pretty good, but they can't hold up to injuries. But even healthy, the Redskins defense is not as good as Green Bay. The Eagles offense should be better than this week.

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I hate to use injuries as an excuse for poor play, so I purposefully ignored that and all other injuries, but I don't disagree that having him back is big.

[Spellmen]

The Tampa FG was a fluke, but the two pick6's McNabb served up on a platter to Barber had nothing to do with it? The FG was fluky, the loss wasn't. Philly lost that game because McNabb made two horrendous throws

[Spellmen]

Westbrook had a really impressive, long run or reception where he broke or dodged about 20 tackles to score a TD to give Philly the lead.

[Tyler Durden]

Shawn Springs didn't start yesterday. Fred Smoot did. I hope that experiment is over.

I still can't belive Smoot dropped that easy pick-6 in the last minute of regulation.