Awkward KQ spot late in FT $6500

[iStackBooks]

Doesn't this make a check better? If we bet anything on the flop, we are committed to the hand. So why not let the villain tell us where he is at? If he checks here, I think we can pretty safely assume that he has nothing and bet almost any turn. If he bets, he is showing massive strength and we can find a fold easily.

What exactly do we expect to accomplish by betting? We aren't getting any better hands to fold, and we can be pretty sure that any worse hands are making it very obvious by checking behind.

[BarryLyndon]

Tack covers it all. Checking is is attrocious. Why commit 77/88 into making a bet when you can bet here and get those smaller pairs to fold. And if you can't, then you have, I dunno, 14 outs? You also don't want to commit AQ / weakly played AK. Such an easy, easy 2/3rds cont. bet.

Also, from this position, I prefer a raise to like 550. Building bigger pots UTG with KQo kinduv sucks.

Barry

[HatchetHarry]

New to the forum, but i spent so much time thinking about this post that i thought i'd be brave and share it with you. I'm using Harringtons math for the problem.

I've based the holdings and chances of holding roughly based on my own standards which i would consider mildly loose. I have also weighted them to reflect the probability that i would re-raise post flop. I struggled with KQ which would be split pot most of the time so i put it with a 50% win chance.

Poss Holdings - % Chance of holding - % win PF against Hero - Average Win Chance


AA-------5%-------85%-------4%
KK-------5%-------73%-------4%
QQ-------5%-------64%-------3%
JJ------15%-------99%------15%
TT------15%------100%------15%
22-99---20%-------48%------10%
AK-------5%-------75%-------4%
AQ------10%-------75%-------8%
AJ------15%-------58%-------9%
AT-----2.5%-------86%-------2%
KQ-----2.5%-------50%-------1%

Total Average win chances 73%

My conclusion was that Villian would be winner in the hand 73% of the time based on my weightings or 2.8-1. As such a C/Bet of 1200 into an 1800 pot would be a bad bet (i think!) so i'll check/fold or see what the turn brings for free. (or i would after the 2 hours i spent thinking about the hand!!)

I also negated the fact that Villian would fold a better hand against the chance that he would bluff. (again subjective)

I look forward to any feedback on wether this would be a valid way of looking at the situation.

Regards
HH

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you were the preflop raiser, I would just lead out close to pot and get the money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, otherwise we're going to be check folding, unless he obliges us with a really obvious bet-size tell that also leaves us some FE.

[HatchetHarry]

Thanks Stumpy - Great bit of kit that i was'nt aware of up to now.

Regards
HH