15/30 I think I misplayed multiple streets

[ActionFreak]

I don't think the flop call is bad if you know that you can't eliminate the players behind you for two small bets.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the flop call is bad if you know that you can't eliminate the players behind you for two small bets.

[/ QUOTE ]ActionFreak - In that case, I'll agree it's at lease not a blunder.

There are big mistakes and little mistakes. A big mistake costs you the whole pot. A little mistake costs you a bet. If you can't eliminate the players behind you, then a flop call is more of a little mistake than a big mistake.

But it's still a mistake.

Hero figures to improve to a full house or quads roughly 35% and not improve roughly 65%. Suppose he always wins when he improves and always loses when he doesn't. (Neither of those are true, but just to keep it simple, they probably somewhat even out).

When he improves with five opponents, he scoops roughly one time out of four and wins half (splitting with low) roughly three times out of four. For this bet alone, when he scoops he collects five bets and when he splits he collects two bets. The weighted average is about
.25*5+.75*2 = 2.75 bets.

So for the 35% he wins, he wins an average of 2.75 extra bets each time. And for the 65% he loses, he loses 1 extra bet each time.
0.35*2.75-0.65*1=0.962-0.65=+0.31

Since the total is positive, Hero shows a profit if nobody folds. Thus it is to Hero's advantage to bet here in terms of showing a profit by doing so.

If you cut down on the number of opponents by having some of them fold, then mainly Hero wins more that 35% (and also, as a secondary positive effect, Hero scoops a higher percentage).

No matter how you cut it, unless you're somehow sure Hero will lose (and then why play at all), by betting Hero increases his chances of doing better.

I agree that Hero should generally mix up his play, but I honestly think in this particular situation, it's very poor poker not to at least raise here much more than call. (I'm raising here close to 100%).

I will agree it's at least not a total blunder to call if it is a certainty nobody will fold to the double bet. However, I don't see how Hero can know for certain that nobody will feel the pressure of the double bet and fold. This is a $15/30 game after all!

Either way, whether Hero's opponents pay or fold, I think it's to Hero's advantage to bet this top flopped set. I'm guessing there probably is some number of optimal opponents, but that's a moot point because Hero cannot control exactly who will fold and who will call. It's simply generally to Hero's advantage to make it a double bet here.

Buzz

[1MoreFish4U]

This is a must raise on the flop. You certainly do want to eliminate the palyers that would chase a backdoor low, and who could be holding some fluke hand that would end up beating you on the river, such as AJT2, AJT3, JT65, KK65, AKK2 - these are hands that many players would see the turn with for 1 bet with so many players in.

I dont do the math, but I would expect that it is mathematically correct to continue with these types of hands for the price.

If someone did, then the turn card would give them sufficient reason to play to the river and beat you.

As is stands, the hands likely to continue for 2 bets on the flop would more likely be flush draws, lower sets, maybe 2 pair, and possibly A23 type holdings that would be more inclined to give up after missing the turn rather than continue in the big bet section of the hand.

The hands that would continue would be the ones you wanted in, rather than the goofy ones that could end up beating you.

[XXsooted]

Thanks everyone for the great responses. Looks like I found a pretty big leak in my game. I just always hated playing high-only hands on a 2-lo flop so if I felt like I had to I would play them extremely passively.

One question, if the pot is somehow heads-up with this holding do we use my line since we're not as worried about a random high catching up? My thinking is that our high-only hand versus random hand with lo draw is a dog on the flop, so wait for turn high card to raise if we're heads up? I realize there won't be a whole lot of safe cards especially with a two flush on the flop. It might be that I'm too afraid of a lo draw + flush draw or straight draw, because most times I won't be against such a strong two-way hand? I think I was brainwashed by one of the Omaha/8 books I read when I was learning this game, which stressed how crappy high hands are...

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
One question, if the pot is somehow heads-up with this holding do we use my line since we're not as worried about a random high catching up? My thinking is that our high-only hand versus random hand with lo draw is a dog on the flop, so wait for turn high card to raise if we're heads up?

[/ QUOTE ]XXsooted - Heads-up is a whole different ball game, with largely different considerations.

Heads-up you especially want to avoid going to the river and getting scooped, and you want to somehow turn your strong one-way hands into scoopers. With this hand it's a question of whether you can bet and scare your opponent out of the pot or not. If you think you can, then you go for it. With your hand, I'd generally at least take a stab at scooping the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
I realize there won't be a whole lot of safe cards especially with a two flush on the flop. It might be that I'm too afraid of a lo draw + flush draw or straight draw, because most times I won't be against such a strong two-way hand?

[/ QUOTE ]A flopped set of queens is heavily favored to win for high in a heads-up contest. And you want to give your opponent poor odds to draw for the diamond flush or low.

On the other hand, when heads-up your should expect your opponent to play more loosely. For example, your opponent may be drawing for the diamond flush with any two diamonds and maybe the low with any two low cards.

So you just have to play your opponent. I mean you just try to out-think your opponent. What to do when heads-up seems even more dependent on out-playing your opponent than in a full game.

That written, I'm generally going to bet (and raise with on the second betting round) the flopped set of queens with this two-low-card flop.

Buzz