AA vs TAG

[Jimmayjames]

I'm going to be 100% to bet that turn. You forget, this kid called your flop bet, so this turn bet will either make you or break you. If you bet out again, he may make his move (with trips/two pair), and you lose no more money. If he does just call, I may possibly even fold on the river if he bets.

[Kasane]

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Bet turn....

To everyone saying to check the turn, ... why can't villain have a hand like 89?

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Exactly -- he's folding 89 to the second barrel often. We don't get value from it. He's on something weak or really strong. Usually weak, but it's hard to extract value from weak. If, on the other hand it's strong or villain does something crazy with his weak (actually, the smartest thing he can do with it), we'll be facing a nasty decision on the turn.

I'm not saying don't set yourself up for hard decisions, that's not good poker, just that we're way ahead or way behind -- and we sometimes make a bit more when we're ahead.

With that said, I'm not sure if this is a turn check behind or not on this board against this villain. It's close.

[yapee]

If he either has something weak like 89 or something really strong, then why not bet small like 3 or 4. He may call it with his weak and make a move with his strong. And we're protecting against 5-out draws like the 89 and charging the queen and the flush draw, like someone suggested.