JJ: CO/Button confrontation against reg

[gimmetheloot]

push is awful?
just so sick bad.

OP, river fold is good.

[Acevader]

If this is 1010 it is absolutely terrible play from villain with regards to ensuring maximum value....and he's a regular you say!!

In my experience turn donkbets are usually vulnerable hands, draws and a hand that just improved. He could have 8x here but its unlikely which is why I think its usually a draw or vulnerable hand. A regular with AA-QQ would usually push preflop. There are plenty regulars out there that will call a 3-bet with Q10,A10 (esp suited) and especially if hero is an active BTN 3-bettor which at 28/22 we can assume he is.

If villain does have 1010 then he's turned the house and he badly wants hero to hit a straight, over-cards or flush so I doubt he donks it. However, if he did take that flop with 99, A10, Q10, K10 then he cannot c/r the flop and reasonably fold. By raising he basically alerts hero that he has TPGK+ or a very strong draw and hero folds all lesser hands but never folds JJ+ (I'm sure hero gets them in here if villain c/r this flop?). Thus his line against hero is to call the flop and evaluate the turn. The turn is a total brick for hero's hand and villain, holding a vulnerable hand can, rightly so, fear that in those instances he is ahead he lets hero overtake by offering a free card and thus he elects to bet out. Whether he intended to fold to a raise or not I don't know. I think he expected to take it on this turn fairly often.

His river bet is probably value. Hero doesn't call this turn with KQ or AK unless suited with hearts in which case hero probably just shoves. Villain should also expect hero to often shove AA-QQ on this turn. So it looks like hero has a little something and villains A10 type hand therefore has value on this river. In offering such lucrative odds he expects to be called her often by lesser hands.

In short I really believe JJ is good here at that price.

[dragonystic]

shove turn.

[Acevader]

FWIW, assigning the following range vs hero's JJ hero is 66% favourite to win:

99,ATs,KTs,QTs,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,ATo,KTo,QTo,J9o+,T 9o,98o,87o

Assigning this range and hero is 56% to win:

99,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,98s,87s,ATo,KTo,QTo,JTo,98o,87o

This slightly less probable range and hero is 36% to win:

TT,AKs,ATs,KQs,KTs,QTs,JTs,98s,87s,AKo,ATo,KQo,KTo ,QTo,JTo,98o,87o

This much tighter range is 25% for hero so a very slight mathematical error to call:

TT,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,98s,87s,98o,87o

Against this range its about break even:

TT,AKs,ATs,KQs,KTs,JTs,98s,87s,ATo,KTo,98o,87o

.....I'm just not seeing how this river is a fold?

[loosbastard]

All of those ranges are way way too wide IMO.

[loosbastard]

[ QUOTE ]
shove turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

And get called by what?

[blah-blah-blah]

just a comment about blocker bets. I've seen people make blocker bets then call when they get raised. so this could be a blocker bet w/ JT or something but he knows he's not folding. he just doesnt want you to put him all-in.

[Leptyne]

Villain's turn bet is a really strong move since he is taking the initiative and putting in over half his stack. I would expect this to be a set. Villains river bet is what I call a "call me" bet. With only 2 outs your JJ = AA and when you're not going to call the river you can fold the turn.

[aditya]

Guys, it isn't a blocker bet. You have no FE whatsoever. This is a horribly difficult spot. If you push the turn you get called by basically A-Khh and AQhh and then everything else that beats you. As nitty as it sounds, unless I'm pretty sure that villain will call 3-bets really light (<99, and is capable of floating the turn with nothing in 3-bet pots), I'm folding the turn itself. Also, I'd like to comment that the turn bet is ridiculously strong from villain cause he's basically pleading you to push over his raise.

[aditya]

[ QUOTE ]
With only 2 outs your JJ = AA

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. This is absolutely wrong to put villain on 1 hand and 1 hand only 1010 (assuming that villain won't call <99 for set value.) I'm stacking off in this spot like all the time with QQ,KK, and AA. QQ is a bit iffy but since OP plays 28/22 you have to go broke on this perfect board. (on the turn I mean.)