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#11
09-06-2007, 11:48 AM
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Re: KK in weird preflop action
UTG has AA large percentage of the time, BU could have likely called getting odds with 22-JJ and 3 of those just hit sets 2, and since he called as well, ur likely never good here.
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#14
09-06-2007, 11:52 AM
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Re: KK in weird preflop action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i like your line. utg has AA a big % here after limp-cold calling. he's 18/11 - wtf do you think he has? really no way to know what button has but he probably has a bunch of outs. [/ QUOTE ] Obv we're behind a decent amount here, but we're getting like 5-1! Surely we're up against QQ/JJ and a draw enough to make this a pretty straightforward call. [/ QUOTE ] it's only 4.55-1 and i think utg has AA like 90% here. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I make it that hero needs 16.6% equity to break even (ignoring any side-pot issues), and I would expect UTG to hardly ever have AA here. Seems like 66,77,88,99 a fair bit of the time, which is obv similar to AA in equity (except for 88). Anyway, and again ignoring any side-pot issues, if you give UTG {KK,AA,66,77,88,99} and the other fella {66+} then it's quite close. You can play around with ranges, but given the reads of the other two players I reckon it's probably hard to say there's much in it either way - though you can argue that if it's at least very close with a tight range then you have to call because almost everyone does odd-looking things from time to time. Personally I'm a station so call, obv.
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#15
09-06-2007, 11:57 AM
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Re: KK in weird preflop action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] anyone for results? guess for what the other guy had [/ QUOTE ] not quiiite yet plz [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] so would you call if the other guy folds to the shove? utg had AA the other guy TT what about the TT guys play? you like his call? [/ QUOTE ] thx
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#17
09-06-2007, 12:24 PM
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Re: KK in weird preflop action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i like your line. utg has AA a big % here after limp-cold calling. he's 18/11 - wtf do you think he has? really no way to know what button has but he probably has a bunch of outs. [/ QUOTE ] Obv we're behind a decent amount here, but we're getting like 5-1! Surely we're up against QQ/JJ and a draw enough to make this a pretty straightforward call. [/ QUOTE ] it's only 4.55-1 and i think utg has AA like 90% here. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I make it that hero needs 16.6% equity to break even (ignoring any side-pot issues), and I would expect UTG to hardly ever have AA here. Seems like 66,77,88,99 a fair bit of the time, which is obv similar to AA in equity (except for 88). Anyway, and again ignoring any side-pot issues, if you give UTG {KK,AA,66,77,88,99} and the other fella {66+} then it's quite close. You can play around with ranges, but given the reads of the other two players I reckon it's probably hard to say there's much in it either way - though you can argue that if it's at least very close with a tight range then you have to call because almost everyone does odd-looking things from time to time. Personally I'm a station so call, obv. [/ QUOTE ] ok, i screwed up the math - it's actually 4:1 and hero needs to win 20.3% (not quite that high b/c occasionally he beats SB for the side after losing to the button for the main, but that is rare and the side pot is small). my calc was that total pot if hero calls will be 404+404+360 = 1168, hero needs to call 237, so 237 / 1168 = .203, which is 4:1. do you really think a preflop nit is going to limp-cold call with 66-99 very often? limping is possible but i think he turbo-folds those to a raise and reraise. if it's not AA, i think it's JJ-KK much more often than small pairs (which helps the argument to call in this hand), but it's AA a big %. our hand would be helped a lot if we had the Kh for backdoor flush potential and also so we could count the Kh as a clean out.
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#19
09-06-2007, 12:41 PM
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Re: KK in weird preflop action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i like your line. utg has AA a big % here after limp-cold calling. he's 18/11 - wtf do you think he has? really no way to know what button has but he probably has a bunch of outs. [/ QUOTE ] Obv we're behind a decent amount here, but we're getting like 5-1! Surely we're up against QQ/JJ and a draw enough to make this a pretty straightforward call. [/ QUOTE ] it's only 4.55-1 and i think utg has AA like 90% here. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I make it that hero needs 16.6% equity to break even (ignoring any side-pot issues), and I would expect UTG to hardly ever have AA here. Seems like 66,77,88,99 a fair bit of the time, which is obv similar to AA in equity (except for 88). Anyway, and again ignoring any side-pot issues, if you give UTG {KK,AA,66,77,88,99} and the other fella {66+} then it's quite close. You can play around with ranges, but given the reads of the other two players I reckon it's probably hard to say there's much in it either way - though you can argue that if it's at least very close with a tight range then you have to call because almost everyone does odd-looking things from time to time. Personally I'm a station so call, obv. [/ QUOTE ] ok, i screwed up the math - it's actually 4:1 and hero needs to win 20.3% (not quite that high b/c occasionally he beats SB for the side after losing to the button for the main, but that is rare and the side pot is small). my calc was that total pot if hero calls will be 404+404+360 = 1168, hero needs to call 237, so 237 / 1168 = .203, which is 4:1. do you really think a preflop nit is going to limp-cold call with 66-99 very often? limping is possible but i think he turbo-folds those to a raise and reraise. if it's not AA, i think it's JJ-KK much more often than small pairs (which helps the argument to call in this hand), but it's AA a big %. our hand would be helped a lot if we had the Kh for backdoor flush potential and also so we could count the Kh as a clean out. [/ QUOTE ] oh I cocked up the maths there, UTG has hero covered and this makes a difference (I assume I added his full stack, or something equally as daft). Doh. Anyway, I know it was AA this time but really don't see that as often as the other medium pairs making sets or the oesd. Many players with tight stats don't like to raise them UTG and also hate to fold them. Limping aces is one of those things that just seems less popular than it used to be, I could be wrong though and maybe this is how loads of nits play.
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