QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet

[nerdking]

I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

[BigBadBabar]

lol @ folding the turn

[CrMenace]

[ QUOTE ]
I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I have a pfr of 11 and don't cap TT usually, and generally not JJ either when I wasn't the first raiser.

[CrMenace]

Anyway, say BB has AA or KK 50% of the time, JJ or TT 40% of the time and AK 10% of the time. SB has a random PP or paired the board 75% of the time and hit is crummy straight 25% of the time. BB will call any PP but not AK. What's out EV?

BB wins 50% * -1 = -0.5
SB wins 25%*50% * -1 = -0.125
We win, BB and SB call 40%*75%*2= +0.6
We win, BB folds, SB calls 10%*75%*1= +0.00075

Total EV = -0.02425

Marginally negative, thus check. Play with the assumptions if you think they should be different.

[Xhad]

I'd rather not raise the flop the first time than cap it. I especially hate any plan that involves folding anywhere if pf capper remains the only aggressor, the pot has just gotten too big for that. FWIW I've seen lines much stronger than this and still run into less than KK.

[Xhad]

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I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

[/ QUOTE ]

My pfr is 13 and I never have TT here.

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

[/ QUOTE ]

My pfr is 13 and I never have TT here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mine is usally around 12 and I don't have TT here either.

[OX45AL]

He may have JJ with his 10-PFR, I say check it down.

[Point Blank]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

[/ QUOTE ]

My pfr is 13 and I never have TT here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mine is usally around 12 and I don't have TT here either.

[/ QUOTE ]

pfft - you guys are teeni-weeny - I'm 13.1 (sometimes I can get it up to 14 with a little help [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) ...

but whatever our pfr is we can't say crap for villain here (we've all seen nutty things from what would appear to be normal decent players ... we don't know if this guy has any info on these two other guys - or who knows what. So, the possibility is there)

BB:
lose: AA (6), KK (6)
tie: QQ(1)
win: JJ(6 maybe count as 5 hands), TT (6, counted as 1 hand)

doesn't call
AsKs (1), maybe AsKx (0.5)

and now we have some random guy who clearly sucks ... can't really put him on a range but his hand count needs to compensate for the times BB is ahead (he'll need to payoff x amount of times greater than he wins)

so I think the maths would be something like this (not too sure though)

(-2)x(6+6) + (2)x(5+1) + (0)x(1) + (2)x(a-b)

where a is retard's payoff hands, and b is the times he is ahead
we would only put in one bb so I don't think it needs to get more complex that his

this reduces to
a > 6 + b ... so this retard only needs 6 hands more to payoff than when is is ahead for us to consider betting the river given BB's hand range

<font color="green">please let me know if this calculation is out in left field ... conceptually</font>

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
but whatever our pfr is we can't say crap for villain here (we've all seen nutty things from what would appear to be normal decent players ... we don't know if this guy has any info on these two other guys - or who knows what. So, the possibility is there)

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't an argument for making multiple raises postflop and it's certainly against putting in multiple raises and then folding the turn.