It's going to be impossible to protect my hand - Page 2

HOWMANY · #11 09-04-2007, 06:48 PM

Well the coldcall is because it looks like the pot will be 5-6 ways and the cap is because I have a good equity edge 7-8 ways. I feel like I must have mistyped something in the OP because this seems so normal to me. I can't fold preflop and I can't/shouldn't 3bet. Good equity edge + look like a fish if I get to show it down = upside down frown.

*edit*
Just saw the "froze up Gary" thing. Gary will never freeze up here. He is fully aware that I am just building a huge pot which is what I would do here with pretty much anything sooted hand or pair that I coldcalled with initially.

fishboy · #12 09-04-2007, 06:53 PM

I like your cap preflop as Gary is a maniac and probably has 2 blank cards dealt to him in the blind that he decided to threebet as usual. Noone else in the hand has a drawing hand like yourself because they were all dealt 2 blank cards as well. Everyone is drawing dead so cap away and jam all streets baby!

Yeah threebetting flop is better to push Gary out off his 6 outs. Noone is waiitng in the weeds i don't think. If they were you would have heard from them after the all in guy checkraised flop probably. They are desperately fishing with there 2 blank cards. But since you will hit a turn 10 you were probably right to slow play as now everyone is drawing dead as always vs. you. NH!

I now know you name stands for howmany racks will i win with the worst hand? I'm guessing was 8 or 9 last night. ni han sir!

PokerBob · #13 09-04-2007, 06:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well the coldcall is because it looks like the pot will be 5-6 ways and the cap is because I have a good equity edge 7-8 ways. I feel like I must have mistyped something in the OP because this seems so normal to me. I can't fold preflop and I can't/shouldn't 3bet. Good equity edge + look like a fish if I get to show it down = upside down frown

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess i just think that in big, multiway pots (a) QTs is not all that great and (b) playing hands straightforwardly gets the money. you're gonna have to show down the best hand, so there isn't much need to get fancy.

assuming there are 3 retards in the hand, 1 guy who plays 17% of his hands, and that Gary is competent (i have no idea who he is, so i could be way off), i get these numbers from pokerstove....

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 12.736% 12.05% 00.70% 513753 30039.33 { random }
Hand 1: 12.730% 12.06% 00.70% 513909 29636.75 { random }
Hand 2: 12.733% 12.05% 00.70% 513813 29873.17 { random }
Hand 3: 17.938% 16.74% 01.23% 713679 52259.25 { 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 4: 27.154% 26.37% 00.83% 1124141 35364.58 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 5: 16.709% 15.71% 01.03% 669618 43891.42 { QTs }

HOWMANY · #14 09-04-2007, 06:54 PM

8

fishboy · #15 09-04-2007, 07:04 PM

Yes we call this the nuisance raise in my parts. There is noway howmany is frezing Gary up here for 2 reasons. 1)If howmany had a real hand why wouldnt he have just threebet to begin with? He is just buling a bigger for when(as always) he gets there and wins the pot! 2)it is impossible to freeze Gary he is burning up his chips too fast for them to ever get that cold.

PokerBob · #16 09-04-2007, 07:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
8

[/ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 10.199% 09.41% 00.79% 510067 42721.08 { random }
Hand 1: 10.205% 09.41% 00.79% 510137 43007.92 { random }
Hand 2: 10.195% 09.40% 00.79% 509622 42969.08 { random }
Hand 3: 14.322% 13.28% 01.04% 719859 56449.67 { 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 4: 20.575% 19.88% 00.70% 1077535 37699.25 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 5: 14.134% 13.13% 01.01% 711609 54477.50 { QTs }
Hand 6: 10.172% 09.39% 00.79% 508710 42635.17 { random }
Hand 7: 10.199% 09.41% 00.79% 510003 42800.33 { random }

this is assuming that 5 of the 8 are totally random, which is a best-case scenario imo.

if we assume that 2 of them are total retards (play 100% of hands), 3 are merely idiots (75%), it looks more like this....

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 10.650% 09.85% 00.80% 244922 19891.46 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 83s+, 73s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o }
Hand 1: 10.666% 09.87% 00.80% 245298 19914.37 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 83s+, 73s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o }
Hand 2: 10.663% 09.87% 00.80% 245212 19935.96 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 83s+, 73s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o }
Hand 3: 13.833% 12.84% 01.00% 319039 24921.62 { 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 4: 20.140% 19.46% 00.69% 483684 17112.04 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 5: 13.492% 12.53% 00.97% 311473 24019.54 { QTs }
Hand 6: 10.285% 09.54% 00.74% 237235 18507.29 { random }
Hand 7: 10.272% 09.53% 00.75% 236876 18553.21 { random }

meh. you do indeed have a small equity advantage in these instances, but i think there are better edges to push.

PokerBob · #17 09-04-2007, 07:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
2)it is impossible to freeze Gary he is burning up his chips too fast for them to ever get that cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

if gary is a loose idiot, then obviously ignore everything i wrote.

HOWMANY · #18 09-04-2007, 07:10 PM

"8" was a response to Gary wondering how many racks I won.

To be honest I am pretty surprised that my equity is so poor here, I thought it would be much better.

gaming_mouse · #19 09-04-2007, 08:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
meh. you do indeed have a small equity advantage in these instances, but i think there are better edges to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

bob, i think your sims are instructive and support your argument against the cap.

one thing, however, that they do not capture is the additional implied odds you gain by tying people to a monster pot in which they will want to showdown any hand with a prayer of winning.

so i don't think there is anything wrong with cap. i don't think you give up much by not capping either.

PokerBob · #20 09-04-2007, 08:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
meh. you do indeed have a small equity advantage in these instances, but i think there are better edges to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

bob, i think your sims are instructive and support your argument against the cap.

one thing, however, that they do not capture is the additional implied odds you gain by tying people to a monster pot in which they will want to showdown any hand with a prayer of winning.

so i don't think there is anything wrong with cap. i don't think you give up much by not capping either.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. but i'd rather take this line with a hand like 44.