QQ in le reraised pot, monotone, etc

[Eagles]

Bakes,
If he shoves with TT or JJ its not for value or a bluff its because hes stupid and wants to get a showdown but I understand what your saying. FWIW I like how you played the hand.

[GreatKerblini]

what he show?

[ZJ123]

[ QUOTE ]
Bakes,
If he shoves with TT or JJ its not for value or a bluff its because hes stupid and wants to get a showdown but I understand what your saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh thats not necessarily true.

Hmmm... this is a lot closer than I originally thought when I first read this post. In my opinion, when you call the turn, I think it has to be with the intention of
a) checking/folding on a diamond river
b) calling a river shove on a brick because I think this polarizes his hands to the almost nuts and bluffs
c) checking behind on a river brick because part of the value of calling the turn is getting to showdown without putting out stack in since we have position

I feel like folding on the turn isn't bad either, because I think we often call turn and incorrectly fold the river even when it bricks. If you're good enough to call the turn and make the right decision readless against a random, then more power to you. On that boatd though, when we check behind on the flop and keep it small in the first place, I can't imagine the reverse implied odds are too good to get another chip in.

[luckychewy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bakes,
If he shoves with TT or JJ its not for value or a bluff its because hes stupid and wants to get a showdown but I understand what your saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh thats not necessarily true.

[/ QUOTE ]

if he's unknown i think it's true way more often that not.

[Bakes]

I aint checkin behind on no river bricks, valuetown FTW. I don't check behind the flop to control the pot, I do it because its way easier to get paid by a worse hand with the flop check. On a monotone board, I might sometimes only get one bet in but I like doing it on the turn/river.

[Stumpy]

Given these stacks, why not get him all in on the turn?

You said you're betting the river if checked to.
You're calling if it's a blank.
So if he has a flush, you're paying him off 82% of the time anyway.

If he doesn't, you're giving him a 20% chance to hit one for free, when he'd call the last 2k on the turn (20% to win).

Clearly he has a FD more often than a made flush.

For just calling to be better, he has to bluff non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] rivers more than he'd call with a FD on the turn.
(Well, at least 80% as much. He's 20% to win when he calls the turn.)

[Bond18]

I like it because i like clicking the call button these days and people show up with bluffs or just random air way more than i thought they would. GH bakes.

[Stumpy]

OK, I did some math, and if my preflop range isn't too far off, then this is pretty close.

Can someone who actually plays these stakes give a better Pre-Flop Range?
I used: AJs+,AQo+,55-QQ. 61 total hands.


Pushing Turn
On the turn, 17 hands are ahead, 15 have a good enough draw to call, and 29 would fold.
Ahead: (2NF, 3Set, 3 TP+FD, 9 TPTK)
Drawing: (6 OESD, 2NFD, 7 J+FDs)

The hands that call are about 25% to win on average.
[17*(-2.8k) + 29*(+2k) + 15*( 0.75*(+4k) - 0.25*(-2.8k)]/61 = 740

Pushing Turn = +740 Average


Calling Turn
He Bluffs B% of the time.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Rivers. (20% of the time)
23 hands are behind.
He'll check (1-B)*23 of those and you'll win the 2k Turn pot.
You'll fold to a bet the rest of the time and lose 800 Turn call.

Blank Rivers. (80% of the time)
20 Hands are ahead on average. You'll call and lose 800 Turn + 2k River call.
He'll bluff the remaining 41 hands B% of the time. You'll call and win 4k
The rest of the time he check/folds and you win 2k.
(Since we're comparing this to shoving the turn, your turn call is not dead money)

(0.2*[23*(1-B)*(+2k) + (61-23*B)*(-0.8k)] + 0.8*[20*(-2.8k) + 41*B*(4k) + 41*(1-B)*(2k)])/61

Average for different Bluff Percentages:
100%: +1,317
75%: +1,071
50%: +824
25%: +578
0%: +332

42% Bluff rate is break-even for this range, versus shoving the turn.

If you have no idea how much he bluffs, shoving the turn is nice because the return is good, and doesn't vary.

-Stumpy

[KvGalen]

i really like your line and i think random donk is bluffing , or making a retardbet with 99-JJ enough here to justify a call.