NL 100 playing overpair?

[nycplayer]

Can anyone tell me if this analysis is correct?

It seems counter intuitive that my EV is higher against the range where I'm a bigger dog. Also it seems strange that even if I'm only getting called when I'm very likely to be behind (only beating A8, 99 and 89) that I have such a positive EV.

Case 1: I push, and villain will call with:
(TPTK or better, and TP with gutshot)
77+,55,
A8s,98s,96s,87s,85s,75s,64s,
A8o,98o,96o,87o,85o,75o,64o

87.5% of the time villain folds, and I win $30.
12.5% of the time villain calls, and I am a 7:3 underdog to that range.
My EV when he calls is $4:
30% I win $30 pot + 65 call = 49.5
70% I lose my $65 bet = -45.5

so EV for pushing = ($30 * .875) + ($4 * .125) = $26.75


Assuming I bet $20 and call a push, and villain pushes TPTK plus a couple of semi-bluffs (66 + T9):
55+,
A8s,T9s,98s,96s,87s,85s,75s,64s,
A8o,T9o,98o,96o,87o,85o,75o,64o

85.8% of the time villain folds, and I win $30 (25.74)
14.2% of the time villain pushes,and I am a 2:1 underdog to that range.
My EV when he pushes and I call is $1.65:
33% I win $50 pot + 45 call = 31.65
66% I lose my $45 call = -30.00

so EV for bet/call = ($30 * .858) + ($1.65 * .142) = $25.97

[creedofhubris]

Your ev calculations are way off because you are assuming that opponent has a random hand. He doesn't. Assume he's thrown away 50% of his crappiest hands and recalculate assuming that he therefore has an allin-worthy hand twice as often.

Edit: Two math errors in your calculations.

In the 1st case, 0.3 * $95 = $28.5.

In the 2nd case, you don't lose $45 when you get allin and lose, you lose $65.

[nycplayer]

The random hand issue is tricky for me in HU. What range can I put him on that actually contains the 46o he played for a reraise to $15?

When facing a push in case 2 isn't the $20 flop bet already in the pot?
I get lost doing the math on these things.

[nycplayer]

so corrected math for case 1 is:
($30 * .875) - ($17 * .125) = $24.13

and case 2 would be:
($30 * .858) - ($11.66 * .142) = $24.08

and if I assume he threw away 50% of his losing hands (but not somehow 46o, 58o, etc...) then it would be something like:

($30 * .75) - ($17 * .25) = $18.25

and case 2 would be:
($30 * .716) - ($11.66 * .284) = $18.17

is that right?

[creedofhubris]

Assume he throws away K5o and lower, any Q or lower that won't make a straight, and two- and three-gappers worse than T7, and the worst possible suited cards, that should get you close to 50%.