bank roll question

[pzhon]

To be safe at a level, you need both the skills and the bankroll. Having a bankroll that would make an expert safe does not turn you into an expert, or even a winning player. A losing player will lose any amount eventually.

Even if you are safe, that doesn't mean you should play at a level, if you don't find it as fun or as profitable as playing a lower level. You need a much larger bankroll to justify playing at a higher (tougher) level instead of a lower level than you need to justify playing at the higher level instead of not playing.

The 20 buy-in guess that so many people like to repeat mindlessly is overly conservative for solid winners in low stakes games (say through NL $100), but dangerously aggressive for many MSNL players, and marginal winners in softer games. It was not designed for NL $400, where many solid winning players have significantly lower win rates than are sustainable at NL $200. Don't trust what someone once heard was ok for someone else. You need to look at your own stats, and make your own decisions. A good guide is to compute your comfort level: Comfort = bankroll * win rate / standard deviation^2. Most people are happy with a comfort level between 2 and 4. Your comfort level with a fixed number of buy-ins should be much higher in soft games than in tough games. ROR ~ e^(-2*comfort), if you stay at the same level without withdrawing. You may need far more than 20 buy-ins to achieve the level of comfort at NL $400 that you had in softer games.

That said, I recommend taking some shots at higher stakes games, particularly at peak times such as Fridays and weekends. I would set a stop loss before taking a shot, e.g., take 4 buyins for the higher level, and see what happens. If you lose them, reassess your game and rebuild at the lower level.

[lucky_mf]

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I recommend taking some shots at higher stakes games, particularly at peak times such as Fridays and weekends. I would set a stop loss before taking a shot, e.g., take 4 buyins for the higher level, and see what happens. If you lose them, reassess your game and rebuild at the lower level.

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I agree with this. If you are a solid winner at a level say (200NL) and take a limited shot at 400NL (with less than 20BIs) and run-play well, you can probably establish yourself at the new level and earn 1.5-2x the money you were earning at 200NL from the shot taking period on. If things go badly and you have a stop loss - no problem. Just drop back down, grind, and try again when you feel up to it.

One of the things that is difficult to get a hold on when moving up are the swings. You lose a 400NL buy-in and its natural to think about it as 2 200NL buy-ins. You lose 3 ($1200) and your world is falling apart. To keep the losses and wins in perspective when trying to establish yourself at a higher level via this sort of shot taking it is best to mixing table select well and mix in 1 or 2 tables at the higher level. This will allow you to get a feel for the level without the extreme jump in absolute variance associated with jumping from 4 tables of 200NL to 4 tables of 400NL.

Lucky

[poker_bill]

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I believe that your bankroll should be about 100 times the limits your playing at, which would put you at the 50NL games.

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Forgive me, I saw bankroll, and for whatever reason, thought buyin.