Tricky river decision (1/2)

[TheRempel]

It's a fold without reads. Average player that open limps the button is not bluffing the river like this so you're looking at a chop at best. I don't really like the sizing of your bets on the turn and river. You don't want to get raised by A3 and he'll probably call $20-$24 if he'll call $14.5 with worse.

[jbird]

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By definition, we're always WA/WB on the river since there are no cards left for anyone to catch up to us.

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True, but we often have a good idea as to where we stand. The WA/WB refers to the fact that in this spot, we don't.

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By definition, we're always WA/WB on the river since there are no cards left for anyone to catch up to us. However, this certainly isn't a checking situation. Weak flushes and maybe even Axxx will pay us but will rarely bet if checked to. And I don't see anything villain can have at this point that he'd be looking to bluff with.

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He may think he's valuebetting.

And if the above is your thinking on this hand, then it's an easy fold.

[-DJM-]

I would say that your opponent is already made with A10. IMO he doesnt want to kill action by potting the turn/wants to see river card peel off. Best case here you are looking at a split pot. Once the villian raises I dont think I make this call without a good read.

Unlike most people here, I like the river bet rather than c/c the river. It gives you the info you need. No way villian comes over top here without the goods. Just my 2 cents.

[chucky]

I fold the river. I think villian's range contains atxx much of the time. TTxx does not smooth call a moderately drawy flop. ATxx on the other hand will keep the pot small on flop and then wait to river to go for shove. It is highly unlikely that villian calls on paired turn with combo draw. I would bet 2/3 pot on river and fold to any raises

[iggymcfly]

Do you really think AT flat-calls the flop here? I'm much more worried about A4 than AT in this spot.

[original_red]

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Do you really think AT flat-calls the flop here? I'm much more worried about A4 than AT in this spot.

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that's what I was thinking to, when I said villain played it really weird.. It's hard to put him on anything really except for AKsQsT... maybe.. in that case, not many cards would hurt his hand, and he could smooth call.. and would he really come over the top, so strong with A4?? I doubt that.. but this is really not a good spot to be bluffing either.. maybe he was holding AKsQsT (?)

[piiop]

Not that unlikely for AT to just call flop imo.

[Full-Metall]

without reads you can't assume they're gonna raise A,10. A lot will wait for a blank turn to raise. Knowing they can get a lot of their money in when you cont bet a blank.

[pete fabrizio]

this is a fold unless you have some kind of prior history or reason to be highly suspicious. basically you'd be calling to chop with another A3. he can't have the nut flush since you have the As, and TT, 44, and 33 all seem highly improbable from the action and might choose to just call anyway. pretty much the only thing you can beat outright is a bizarre double-float/river raise bluff. i don't see those a lot, do you?

[chucky]

AT smooth calls flop if he is fairly bare and wants to avoid the tough q,j,k, spade scare card decisions on turn after committing many chips on the flop. It does not really matter if we put villian on a4 or at. The important thing is that we are not facing ttxx, 44xx, or 33xx, very often. A3xx is also unlikely unless villian has 2nd nut flush draw.