How much did i leave on the table??

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]

You can't think of worse hands that call which is totally mistaken.

You assume villain is sane, again a bad assumption.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm perfectly comfortable with bet/folding this river, I think the line is fine. But I'm not sure about the two items above...

What do you think the distribution of typical 1/2 players is on a "sanity" scale? Are there that many insane players? We have no read, first orbit, so let's look at that distribution before deciding to bet.

[Nielsio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You can't think of worse hands that call which is totally mistaken.

You assume villain is sane, again a bad assumption.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm perfectly comfortable with bet/folding this river, I think the line is fine. But I'm not sure about the two items above...

What do you think the distribution of typical 1/2 players is on a "sanity" scale? Are there that many insane players? We have no read, first orbit, so let's look at that distribution before deciding to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]


A good player doesn't play any hand like this unless there are at level 18 or something, which is where nobody at 0.5/1 is at.

[sixhigh]

Hmmm, let's do some math. We will give villain a range: 30% a worse hand calling a vbet, 30% a worse hand folding to a vbet, 30% a better hand pushing over, 10% a worse hand pushing over.

So b/f $32 nets you .3*(32) + .3*(0) + .3*(-32) + .1*(-32) = -3.2
And b/c $32 nets you .3*(32) + .3*(0) + .3*(-100) + .1*(100) = -10.4

Now you might disagree with my ranges, but i don't think they are WAY off.

[Austiger]

If someone c/r bluffs you here, you should not only let them have it, you should stand at your computer and applaud. The Ad is such a good scare card that anybody who is left with air on the river is going to lead with a bluff rather than c/r. Therefore you really need to b/f. People are likely to put you on a polarized range of flush/air and call you light.

[thedustbustr]

[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't do the 'f' in 'b/f' and can't think of many worse hands calling a bet if villain is somewhat sane. -> checking is okay.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you don't want to leave money on the table, learn how.

[Unknown Soldier]

wow, you have top set man, get some value

[Nielsio]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, let's do some math. We will give villain a range: 30% a worse hand calling a vbet, 30% a worse hand folding to a vbet, 30% a better hand pushing over, 10% a worse hand pushing over.

[/ QUOTE ]


Worse hand that raises: 5%

Better hand: 20%

[sixhigh]

[ QUOTE ]

Worse hand that raises: 5%

Better hand: 20%

[/ QUOTE ]

Making b/f $32 a whopping +$4.

[tubasteve]

$1,000,000

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Worse hand that raises: 5%

Better hand: 20%

[/ QUOTE ]

Making b/f $32 a whopping +$4.

[/ QUOTE ]

what?