NFD faces a c/r

[Buzz]

RoundTower - Thanks for taking the time to respond to me. Much appreciated from both you and The Rempel. It's clear to me that both of you guys are experts, and I am not.[ QUOTE ]
Your pot odds are simply not favorable, if the guy has a set, to see only one more card which is all you get for the price of your call.

[/ QUOTE ]You're right.

However, there is no guarantee he'll shove the rest of his stack in on the next betting round if you call.

You may be getting two cards for the price of one, and if so, you do have favorable implied pot odds to call.

And if the guy doesn't actually have a set, there are various hands he could have, such as two pairs, where he is the favorite, but you do have favorable odds to call, but not to raise.[ QUOTE ]
However if there is any chance the guy does not have a set, you have good pot odds to get it all in.

[/ QUOTE ]I strongly disagree. You simply get better odds here if you call.

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This is very basic stuff...

[/ QUOTE ]Seems so to me also.[ QUOTE ]
... and should not need explaining to anyone who has played big bet poker.

[/ QUOTE ]It has nothing to do with big bet poker. This is not "big bet" poker.

Buzz

[jbird]

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Quote:
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...since you would be committed to calling any turn bet regardless of what comes off


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That's true. But it's not a reason to raise.

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Buzz,

Yes, it is... If you are committed to calling ANY turn here, it is better to put in a raise now, don't you think?

Why risk villain check / folding when we make our hand, if in fact we are calling any non-favorable turn card for hero anyway?

[TheRempel]

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I strongly disagree. Hero has favorable implied pot odds to call, but not favorable odds (if Villain has what his bet represents) to initiate fresh money into the pot.

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I'm not sure you quite understand implied odds, especially as related to PLO. Implied odds would be a consideration only if the villain could be led into making an incorrect call on the turn without odds or could be expected to pay off on the river. With only a 1/5 or smaller bet left in his opponents stack, the OP has 0 implied odds so the only thing he can consider are his effective odds.

With the stacks the EV of pushing the flop and the EV of calling the flop and calling the last $3.30 on the turn are exactly the same. Calling when you plan on calling the rest of the stack on any turn regardless is just pointless FPS.


Hero needs 38.4% equity to make a push break even. Given the huge range of hands he is 50/50-60/40-40/60 with this is an easy push.
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If we just give Villain K,Q,T,4 Villain is ahead by about 62 to 38. (Simulate it yourself, if you don't believe me).


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It's not that I don't believe you; you just happen to be woefully misinformed.

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If Villain only has top and bottom pair with crap, for example
K,4,5,6, then Villain is ahead about 51 to 49. What is the point of betting where Villain will be more or less forced to call when you are behind?


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When you have two choices with the exact same equity and variance, what is the point of leaving your opponent with a 1/5 PSB? It doesn't matter if you're slightly ahead or slightly behind his range, pushing is +EV. Calling is no different from pushing, it just gives you an opportunity to misclick and fold or disconnect on the turn. Anytime you can put the last bet in on the flop when you would've put it in on any turn anyway you should. It's simple common sense.

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And if Villain is somehow bluffing, a call here will do. There simply is not any reason to raise here, unless you think a raise will buy the pot from a better hand. (And I suppose anything is possible, but that seems unlikely to me.)

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Wow how can you not understand this? You are raising because raising and just calling and then calling the turn have the exact same EV. Raising is better because it prevents you from making a mistake that could cost you the pot on the turn (disconnecting, misclicking, etc, etc). The money left behind is not nearly enough to be considered a factor in the hand. If the villian is 'bluffing' in this spot good luck to him; he's not folding anything for another 30BB in a 150BB pot.

[TheRempel]

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You may be getting two cards for the price of one, and if so, you do have favorable implied pot odds to call.

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Again, I keep repeating myself but the villain has 33BB left after his flop raise. You are not ever getting a free card on the turn unless he is absolutely stone cold retarded. If you want to discuss the play of the hand with larger stacks that's fine, but your point has no consideration in relation to the originally posted hand.

[Buzz]

JBird - Yikes. You guys all seem against me on this. Has to make me wonder. Thanks for responding.
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If you are committed to calling ANY turn here, it is better to put in a raise now, don't you think?

[/ QUOTE ]I think sometimes it might be better to raise, but I don't think it is better here.

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Why risk villain check / folding when we make our hand, if in fact we are calling any non-favorable turn card for hero anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]There's a reasonable chance, if Villain doesn't actually have the hand his bet must represent, and it is certainly very possible he does not, ...there's a very reasonable chance Villain has something - perhaps middle or bottom set - perhaps a mediocre spade draw plus two pairs - perhaps just two pairs - where Villain is ahead, but not by much.

And if Villain has something so that he is ahead and enough so that he won't fold it is purely stupid to raise.

The raise only makes sense if we are ahead or if it will cause Villain to fold a better hand. Often that is the case, and it's not absolutely impossible it is not the case here.

But I don't honestly think it is the case here. I honestly think
(1) Hero is probably not ahead here, and I honestly think
(2) Villain will not fold to the piddly little raise Hero could muster (since Villain is mostly all-in already).

And in that case, Hero is getting better odds by calling.

Buzz

[jbird]

BTW, the assumption that this is always KKxx or some two pair hand is also off. This is QsTsxx a lot.

[Buzz]

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..... the villain has 33BB left after his flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]The Rempel - He started with $10.65 and he has put in $.85+$6.30=$7.15. Thus he has $3.50 left.

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You are not ever getting a free card on the turn unless he is absolutely stone cold retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]Or unless he doesn't really have a set of kings and is reading Hero for a possible better hand.[ QUOTE ]
If you want to discuss the play of the hand with larger stacks that's fine,

[/ QUOTE ]I don't. Why would I? There seems no reason to change the stakes of the discussion.[ QUOTE ]
but your point has no consideration in relation to the originally posted hand.

[/ QUOTE ]We're somehow not on the same page.

Thanks again for your time.

Buzz

[CrushinFelt]

Buzz your narrowing of his range down to KKxx only is hurting your analysis. KQJT, QsTxXsX, etc are all quite likely. Granted it's not a great play because his flush draws could be dead and thus some straight outs could be dead if hero has AA with spades, but if hero has a naked two pair or a dry AA enough of the time then his raise is fine.

[CrushinFelt]

Oh, and he is never not sticking that last $3 in either.

[RoundTower]

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You are not ever getting a free card on the turn unless he is absolutely stone cold retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]Or unless he doesn't really have a set of kings and is reading Hero for a possible better hand.

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well you get stuck here either way. If he doesn't always have a set, going all in on the flop is profitable. If he does always have a set, he won't give you a free card on the turn, and calling now is not profitable.