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#12
08-27-2007, 01:43 PM
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Re: NCAA Season Props
[ QUOTE ]
Morelli (PSU) had 2424 yds last yr and his top 3 WR are back. Brennan's top 5 TD WR from last yr and top 6 of 7 yd WR is back from last yr team. He actually only have to ave less TD/G to go over 48. [/ QUOTE ] I do like Morelli esp with loss of Hunt. 
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#13
08-27-2007, 03:54 PM
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Re: NCAA Season Props
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] BEST BET: Andy Brodell (Iowa) over 550 yards receiving -120 bet 1.2u to win 1u [/ QUOTE ] I love this bet. Brodell had 724 yards receiving last year on only 39 receptions. With Douglas getting busted for credit card fraud, Brodell is the #1 guy and should have much more than 39 receptions this year. With his speed, he is always a threat to break a catch open. Also, Iowa doesnt play Michigan or Ohio State this year. Seems to me Brodell should crush 550. [/ QUOTE ] Just took it at -115. Ken
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#14
08-27-2007, 03:59 PM
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Re: NCAA Season Props
What do you think of Brandon Cox over 2150 yds? He had 2198 last year (not sure if ESPN includes the bowl game in that) but Auburn's gameplan was very run-oriented/field position last year because of their great special teams and the fact that Brandon was hobbled all year. They will be playing some brutal games and presumably coming from behind more this year. In addition, the coaches are saying they will open up the offense more. Brandon is healthier and getting around better than he ever has (that doesn't mean he is fast or anything mind you.) He has only missed one start in 2 years (had the flu vs. W. Ky.) and his backup is Blake Field who Tuberville absolutely refused to put in last year even when Cox was playing horribly. Cox passed for 2324 yds as a sophomore (again, not sure if that includes the bowl game, but that was an 11-game schedule anyway.) Clock rule changes, etc etc.
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#15
08-27-2007, 04:44 PM
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Re: NCAA Season Props
There was just too much doubt in what Cox could do for me to bet it. I think he's pretty decent, but got really beat-up by the good SEC defenses last year that, at times, kind of owned the Auburn offensive line.
The o-line is still a question this season. In addition, Auburn lost their best receiver. 2198 includes the bowl game Even with the additional plays this year and talk of opening up the offense, I don't like it.
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#16
08-27-2007, 04:48 PM
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Re: NCAA Season Props
[ QUOTE ]
these look good what about mario manningham under 13 touchdowns? is there any reason you only hit one of his props? he had 9 TD's last season. the only iffy one to me was colt brennan. brennan had 58 TD's last year in two more games than the 12 hawaii is scheduled for this year... so you are betting on him increasing his torrid pace from last season. [/ QUOTE ] Hawai'i plays a much weaker regular season schedule this year @ Alabama, v Purdue, and v Oregon St replaced by v Washington and two 1-AA squads There should be about 11% more plays this year than last year across the board. Hawai'i's games should have even more of an increase due to the stoppages on numerous changes of possession and better field position after kickoffs. with Manningham, either bet is good. I just didn't want to do both and I see more predictability in yardage output compared to TDs.
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#17
08-27-2007, 04:57 PM
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Re: NCAA Season Props
[ QUOTE ]
IMO the strongest plays are Stafford and Ray Rice. [/ QUOTE ] d'oh I forgot to bet the Stafford over it was/is a great play and was/is on my list unfortunately, the price has moved quite a bit so, i only bet to win .5u Stafford (Georgia) over 1750 total passing yards -150 bet 0.75u to win 0.5u I don't have an opinion on Rice I'm curious to see how he does without Brian Leonard. I'm also curious to see if Mike Teel got any talent throwing the ball.
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#18
08-27-2007, 05:16 PM
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Re: NCAA Season Props
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] these look good what about mario manningham under 13 touchdowns? is there any reason you only hit one of his props? he had 9 TD's last season. the only iffy one to me was colt brennan. brennan had 58 TD's last year in two more games than the 12 hawaii is scheduled for this year... so you are betting on him increasing his torrid pace from last season. [/ QUOTE ] IIRC he played like 3/4 the actual snaps last season. Sat a lot in 2nd halves. [/ QUOTE ] yeah...I'm aware of that as well as Adrian Arrington's problems. The thing is that Michigan under Carr has always spread the ball around and I cannot imagine that not being the case this year with Hart, Grady, and Minor in the backfield and the other top receivers Michigan has on their roster. Also, Manningham had an excessive number of deep bomb catches last year early as defenses didn't key on him. In addition, I don't expect the Michigan offense to get quite the boost that other teams will get in number of plays this year. They were extremely lucky in +/- last year and that rarely holds from one year to the next.
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#19
08-27-2007, 05:34 PM
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Re: NCAA Season Props
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] BEST BET: Andy Brodell (Iowa) over 550 yards receiving -120 bet 1.2u to win 1u [/ QUOTE ] I love this bet. Brodell had 724 yards receiving last year on only 39 receptions. With Douglas getting busted for credit card fraud, Brodell is the #1 guy and should have much more than 39 receptions this year. With his speed, he is always a threat to break a catch open. Also, Iowa doesnt play Michigan or Ohio State this year. Seems to me Brodell should crush 550. [/ QUOTE ] Just a noobs take/question but being the No1 guy means he draws the no1 corner and any most of the double covers. Best of luckGS [/ QUOTE ] true, he will draw tougher coverage but, 1) he was the #2 guy last year and showed marked improvement throughout the year--He was a one-man wreaking crew verse Texas in the Alamo bowl--I expect it to be a positive catalyst 2) QB play for Iowa should be better this year (Tate wasn't very good) 3) There just aren't many options down the field meaning the ball has to goto Brodell quite a bit. The squad lost the #3 wideout from last year. The #2's suspension was mentioned earlier. In addition, the player suspended with #2 was expected to be #3 or #4 this year. 4) Iowa's rush attack looks stronger, which should open up spots for the passing game. 5) Iowa uses the TE quite a bit under Ferentz, which makes it very hard for the defenses to double wideouts. 6) No Michigan and Ohio State on this year's schedule--replaced with Penn St and Michigan St. Iowa was only 2-6 in conference last year and really struggled. Expect much better things this year. 7) more plays per game this year
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#20
08-28-2007, 12:13 AM
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Re: NCAA Season Props
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] these look good what about mario manningham under 13 touchdowns? is there any reason you only hit one of his props? he had 9 TD's last season. the only iffy one to me was colt brennan. brennan had 58 TD's last year in two more games than the 12 hawaii is scheduled for this year... so you are betting on him increasing his torrid pace from last season. [/ QUOTE ] IIRC he played like 3/4 the actual snaps last season. Sat a lot in 2nd halves. [/ QUOTE ] yeah...I'm aware of that as well as Adrian Arrington's problems. The thing is that Michigan under Carr has always spread the ball around and I cannot imagine that not being the case this year with Hart, Grady, and Minor in the backfield and the other top receivers Michigan has on their roster. Also, Manningham had an excessive number of deep bomb catches last year early as defenses didn't key on him. In addition, I don't expect the Michigan offense to get quite the boost that other teams will get in number of plays this year. They were extremely lucky in +/- last year and that rarely holds from one year to the next. [/ QUOTE ] ha I meant it for brennan but I guess it applied to both.
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