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#11
08-27-2007, 06:57 AM
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Re: Raise this turn or no
[ QUOTE ]
Full live 10/20. Game is most loose passive with some random aggression thrown in (due to asian LAG) and pots are very large. 7 limpers (one poor guy folded), I have the button and pick up J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and limp, blinds complete. Flop is K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Blinds check, UTG spazzy asian who bets any FD or OESD like it's the nuts opens the betting, 2 callers, a loose, fairly aggro regular raises (he has a K here almost always, maybe a big draw), folds to me, I 3 town, blinds fold, asian spazz caps, the fish stuck in the middle call, regular calls, I call. Turn is the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Asian spazz checks, 2 fish check, regular bets. Do I raise or not? (edit: yes I realize pf was loose, you don't need to remind me) [/ QUOTE ] The more I think about this, the more it is a call. Asian tard has a diamond draw, so we know where we stand with him. The regular is the issue. Would he bet a worse hand here? There was lots of action on this flop and yet he still bet into the guy who 3bet this flop. IMO from a live player, this typically means more than 1 pair, or top pair at least and he ain't folding it. Even if he does have a hand like QT, he has lots of outs against us and won't fold the turn. My first instinct was to raise the turn to get the obvious diamond draw to pay the max, but does it make sense to do that when (a) we likely are beat by the turn bettor and (b) neither player is ever folding? No. In fact, even if we KNOW that Asian guy has diamonds and other guy has KT, thus giving us the best hand, calling is the correct play here. In spots where you may have the best hand and (a) you are 100% sure that no one is folding to a raise, (b) lots of bad cards can come on the river and (c) a river bet is gonna go in if a good river card comes for you, you should just call and see what the river brings. Some may argue that this is a perfect spot for a free SD raise. It is not. No one is folding. Why not wait to see what comes on the river before we put in that 2nd BB? By calling we can see what comes on the river and maybe save a bet. If the river pairs the Q or brings a diamond, we can safely fold as we beat nothing. If the 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] comes, now we might have the best hand and can call when the turn bettor bets. If it checks to us, we can bet. It is very tempting to think that we are SD committed with this hand, but we are not. This is a really advanced concept that, being a moron, took me a long time to wrap my mind around. If you are dumb like me and don't get it right away, keep thinking about it. It makes sense. 
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#12
08-27-2007, 04:24 PM
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Re: Raise this turn or no
Bob,
Why'd you say if we knew we were ahead, calling would be the best play? Even if we can't make any draws fold, shouldn't we be trying to extract equity?
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#13
08-27-2007, 05:00 PM
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Re: Raise this turn or no
[ QUOTE ]
raise the turn. [/ QUOTE ] Any remote possibility that we are currently ahead and can get opponents to fold two-pair / three-of-a-kind / gutshot outs, given that we have boat and near-nut flush outs ourselves, makes raising automatic here.
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#14
08-27-2007, 06:20 PM
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Re: Raise this turn or no
[ QUOTE ]
Bob, Why'd you say if we knew we were ahead, calling would be the best play? Even if we can't make any draws fold, shouldn't we be trying to extract equity? [/ QUOTE ] read my post again. i's confusing, but it's in there.
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#15
08-27-2007, 07:54 PM
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Re: Raise this turn or no
This makes perfect sense to me, Bob.
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#16
08-27-2007, 07:55 PM
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Re: Raise this turn or no
Once again, perfectly sound advice.
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#17
08-27-2007, 07:59 PM
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Re: Raise this turn or no
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Bob, Why'd you say if we knew we were ahead, calling would be the best play? Even if we can't make any draws fold, shouldn't we be trying to extract equity? [/ QUOTE ] read my post again. i's confusing, but it's in there. [/ QUOTE ] that's a really nice post bob. good job. my issue is the pot size. i believe that combining the chance we are ahead with the frequency we will draw out on those hands we are behind is often enough that putting that extra big bet in on the turn is a justifiable expense. when a pot gets to be this huge, i have a hand that is almost helped by as many cards as it can be hurt by(on the river) and there is some reasonable chance i'm ahead i'll spray the extra bet. it does NOT mean i'm showdown bound, but it does mean i'm going to try to punish those that are attempting to outdraw me while at the same time realizing i have reasonable equity in the hand even if behind.
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