I don't wanna give this flush draw correct odds

[No1Addict]

I've gotten so caught up the math that I didn't see the obvious. Yes, we are winning 2/3 and yes, pushing is the correct answer.

What I was trying to say is that villain cannot make a mistake by calling on the flop even if we push, only a turn all in would accomplish that.

Slammin, it seams you've answered your own question [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[AlexB182]

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Check the flop. As you've described it he is at least 2:1 to make his hand so there's nothing you can do that makes calling incorrect.
What you want is to be in a position to make a significant bet on the turn so that he doesn't get the odds. Let's consider his hand: if he has just the flush draw he'll be a 4:1 dog on the turn, he is 3:1 against with one overcard and he's getting almost 2:1 with two overcards. On the average he's wrong to call a pot sized bet here.

I can't see a line where you bet both the flop and turn and don't give him odds to draw... I guess the don't call it chort stack torture for nothing.

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This just sounds absurd to me. Give him a free card? Is this not the worst thing we could do in this situation?

I'm now leaning towards getting it all in on the flop because although villain won't make a mistake by calling, he is still only a 1/3 favourite to win the hand. Therefore, anything that is shoved into the pot, you win it 2/3 of the time and he loses. Villain's not making a mistake but you are still a favourite to take whatever money he puts into the pot. It's like you're both playing correctly mathematically, but you're playing even more correctly the more money you get him to shove into the pot on the flop.

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Well, what you wrote here is pretty much what I mean, though I admit that talking about "forcing opponents to make mistakes" in my post was pretty misleading and weird. Anyway, bet pot (or shove in NL) is def the right play here as everything that gives you a +EV is a good thing...

[myheadhurts]

In this entirely theoretical situation (i.e. that we know our opponent's hand) both pushing and checking are wrong. I'll get to why later.

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Check the flop. As you've described it he is at least 2:1 to make his hand so there's nothing you can do that makes calling incorrect.
What you want is to be in a position to make a significant bet on the turn so that he doesn't get the odds.

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This deserves comment as it is a very common mistake. It comes from an often misquoted line from TOP: The aim of poker is NOT to make your opponents make mistakes. The aim of poker is to make your opponent make more mistakes than you. There is a difference.

This is where the concept of "trading mistakes" comes in. It's ok for you to make a mistake, as long as your opponent goes on to make a bigger one (either in this hand or a future one).

What is a mistake? Anything that isn't the most +EV decision.

In this case, if you bet x, your EV is x (as we are indifferent on whether we get a call or not).

If we check with the intention of potting the turn, villain makes a flush on the turn one time in 5, roughly. Hence we win the pot 80% of the time, and so our equity is 0.8x.

This assumes however that the villain won't call without odds on the turn. If he will, our equity is 0.2 * 0 + 0.8 * 0.8 * 3x = 1.92x which is clearly the best option. This checking (a mistake) is ok as long as he makes a bigger one (the turn call).


So what we have is two extremes - the first gives us the full equity (i.e. is unexploitable), while the other gives our opponent the chance to make a mistake. A better option, surely, is one that gives us full equity, while still giving our opponent the chance to make a mistake. Does such an option exist?

Yes it does. Say we bet x/2 on the flop. He is 20% to hit on the turn, so needs 4:1. He's actually getting 3:1. If he misses, we push the turn. He's now getting 4:1 (the pot is 2x, the bet is x/2), and hence we are indifferent to a call.

Note we are still guarenteed equity of x, as villains most EV line is to fold the flop. However, we've giving our opponent a chance to make a mistake, so this line is better than pushing.

[myheadhurts]

The EV calc in my post was wrong. The correct EV is:

0.2 * 0 + 0.8 * 0.8 * 3x - 0.8 * x = 1.12x.

I think. Somebody correct that if it's wrong.