400NL - KQs OOP in rr pot flops nut FD

[luegofuego]

bet-fold, not close

[tozzy]

[ QUOTE ]
bet-fold, not close

[/ QUOTE ]
no way this is clear. reads say hes nitty postflop and has a tight callingrange. were not sure about his 4betting tendencies with KK+/AK so lets assume hes coldcalling both for now.
If we cbet 90 into the 98 pot (might be slightly bigger than standard, but wed want to price us in, dont we?) we get slightly better than 1:2,2 odds on the call. Pstove says:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.005 secs 4,158,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 6d 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.184% 32.18% 00.00% 6691 0.00 { KcQc }
Hand 1: 67.816% 67.82% 00.00% 14099 0.00 { AA, 99, 66, AQs+, AKo }

Take out AK and we still have roughly 29% equity. Now take out AA aswell and were back to 31%.

[Scipio]

[ QUOTE ]
Given you raised pf, c-bet the flop. Play from there. You get advice for what you post not a 6-page report on every scenario that could happen after that.

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That´s a worse advice...

We should take a look at all szenarios and build a good line. Another point is that only if we consider every szenario we find the right betsize.


If hero is oop, i like a checkraise.
If we bet most of the time he folds or raises. His callingrange could be only AQ, perhaps AJs. Our draw is only important if he calls our bet and then we have a difficult decision on the turn again ( probably c/f ui).

=> Checkraise ai is the best way to use our draw

[ipokeder]

i think c/ring is horrible and bet/calling is the way to go

who the [censored] c/r's anything on this flop except for draws


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

46,530 games 0.062 secs 750,483 games/sec

Board: Ac 6d 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.472% 42.42% 00.05% 19738 24.00 { KcQc }
Hand 1: 57.528% 57.48% 00.05% 26744 24.00 { 99, 66, AJs+, JcTc, Tc8c, 87s, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 5c4c, AJo+ }

and this of course discludes any bare gutshots or 9's/6's that he's going to shove with much lower equity

[tozzy]

youre right about the c/r. why should we play a FD and make it look EXACTLY like a FD?
i think, however, that your range is way off. from heros description i dont think SCs are part of his range. bet/calling gets more marginal, but not wrong.

[ipokeder]

in a 3-handed game even a tight/weak player can call a 3-b in position with a suited connector vs a laggy villian, TIMES HAVE CHANGED SON

[tozzy]

might well be that the table has been 6handed shortly before. op states that his calling range is "pretty tight", so i guess you will just have to take that for what its worth or just dont take heros reads into consideration at all. also, how do you know hero is laggy?