200: AKs in the BB and the world wants a flop

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
I can understand your resistance to bet based on your read, but if you don't c-bet a flop like this, what do you c-bet?

Checking loses control of the hand unless you are planning to check/raise, which I would not do.

I'd bet about $50 and hope to win it there. Personally, I'd fold to a raise by either.

Turn depends on the card and who called me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I c-bet when I have some expectation that they will fold (or that I have the best hand). With the read we have (assuming it is right) and the shortness of the stacks, they call too often and they always have the best hand when they do. The fact that all the cards are low actually increases both the chance they have a set and the chance they will look us up without one.

As to folding to a raise, check the stack sizes. One of your opponents would be raising you $20 all-in. The other one only has enough to raise 1/3 the pot all-in. If we put in $50, we are totally committed against one and fairly close to it against the other.

I am not sold on the idea of checking here, but it does seem more reasonable than first impressions indicate.

[Mike Kelley]

I wanna play with you if you'll fold for a $17 raise into a $170+ pot. I think you just didn't notice the stack sizes. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Mike Kelley]

I have found a smaller bet to be very effective in these spots. Say 30%-40% It still puts them at a decision for the rest of their chips, but it also gives the impression that we are trying to milk them out of the rest of their stacks. Sure we still call the small stacks AI but we might have bad enough odds to get away from UTG's move if he makes it. I don't think anyone is going to mistake a smaller raise for weakness after the preflop action. I think it's more likely they will sense it as strength.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
I can understand your resistance to bet based on your read, but if you don't c-bet a flop like this, what do you c-bet?

Checking loses control of the hand unless you are planning to check/raise, which I would not do.

I'd bet about $50 and hope to win it there. Personally, I'd fold to a raise by either.

Turn depends on the card and who called me.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really won't be able to fold to a raise as has been said. Any bet here commits you to the pot.

Also, taken in a vacuum I don't think this is a very good pot to c-bet as it isn't that scary. If the 9 was an A, K, or Q then it would be a better flop for a c-bet.

I still think you are committed and you should bet. You really are hoping that both fold or only MP calls.

[Jeff76]

I bomb this for $70 and call a push. I don't want to give any illusions of FE here. It's a semi bluff, obviously, but we won't be in too bad off shape if we have to draw out.

If this wasn't your plan, don't raise pf.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I bomb this for $70 and call a push. I don't want to give any illusions of FE here. It's a semi bluff, obviously, but we won't be in too bad off shape if we have to draw out.

If this wasn't your plan, don't raise pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not fair Jeff. You can't predict which of the 30 outcomes will happen when you raise here.

[CalledDownLight]

The only thing I hate more than how big you raised preflop is not betting the flop. 11 BB preflop is a little ridiculous though.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing I hate more than how big you raised preflop is not betting the flop. 11 BB preflop is a little ridiculous though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why is the preflop raise so bad?

[CalledDownLight]

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[ QUOTE ]
The only thing I hate more than how big you raised preflop is not betting the flop. 11 BB preflop is a little ridiculous though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why is the preflop raise so bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't like the idea of raising so big. I think $14 does the same thing.

[QTip]

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me about these opponents. Do you have a range for them to call a big raise like that?

[/ QUOTE ]

They both were playing fairly tightly and raising pf very infrequently. Both passive postflop as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that wasn't that helpful [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I am having trouble putting them on a range I like. Calling that big raise makes them likely too loose, but you say they are fairly tight. Suppose they have exactly JJ-22. (Too restrictive, I know.) Then we will lose money from here if we get all-in even if they will always fold without a set. Since I doubt TT+ would fold, it is even worse. They might even go ahead and call with any pair hoping you have your exact hand. (That play is consistent with that pre-flop call.) Now, if they sometimes have an ace or some other silliness, then we might make money by betting (even getting folds from those guys).

In short, I think it depends on what "fairly tight" means in the context of calling that pre-flop raise. There seem to be reasonable ranges which make checking reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Octopus:

I think this is a well thought out response, and exactly where I'm at with it as well. They were both running 20/2/1. We have to understand that their calls were made before they got to see how the rest of the field would respond. To me, this indicates some committment to moving forward and I also think it leans them more towards pps.

I would like to hear some discussion from others who want to cbet on what Octopus has written here.