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#12
08-22-2007, 12:09 PM
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Re: $100/nl Check/fold turn?
villain is SUPER passive, .8 over many hands. thus, he either already has the "nut flush," or he has a boat. so, no, clubs aren't going to help you. the worst hand that he has here is AQ, since he doesn't play KQ.
can somebody explain to me why they think another club is going to help? does a 10/2 really play 67s and raise on a paired turn? h 
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#13
08-22-2007, 12:16 PM
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Re: $100/nl Check/fold turn?
The flop bet was fine but I don't care for the turn bet. This guy's most likely hand at this point is either a boat or a better A. So, most of the time you are drawing to 3 outs which means the turn is a check/fold. There is no reason to bet.
Your stats are probably enough to narrow his range enough to make this a fold. However, it sure would be nice to know if he plays SC's like this.
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#14
08-22-2007, 12:26 PM
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Re: $100/nl Check/fold turn?
[ QUOTE ]
villain is SUPER passive, .8 over many hands. thus, he either already has the "nut flush," or he has a boat. so, no, clubs aren't going to help you. the worst hand that he has here is AQ, since he doesn't play KQ. can somebody explain to me why they think another club is going to help? does a 10/2 really play 67s and raise on a paired turn? h [/ QUOTE ] I think you are right. In fact, suited hands are a very small part of his range anyways preflop. I stated that we are drawing to 3 outs mostly here but that was a little rushed. He either limped AK/AQ and has better trips or he has a boat. If he has AK/AQ then we have 3 outs to win and 6 to a split. This means we have 6 outs in that case. If he has a FH then we are drawing to 3 outs to win. If you discount our outs we have 4-5 outs. It doesn't really make a difference from 3 outs though. This is still a check-fold. You are not getting implied odds to draw to this.
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#15
08-22-2007, 03:39 PM
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Re: $100/nl Check/fold turn?
Thank you for the replies.
As soon as he called the flop my brain said "you're dead" then when the turn brought the A and again I knew I was crushed but I couldn't stop my hand from betting. Maybe this belongs in the psych forum but I could not stop myself. I called the reraise and he bet another $20 on the river that I said "F### it" and called to see his KQc. Why do I payoff these nits? Hi, my name is FrogMouth and I'm a calling station!
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#16
08-22-2007, 04:04 PM
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Re: $100/nl Check/fold turn?
[ QUOTE ]
You have to bet the turn. You can not check and let him draw for free. I like the size of your turn as well. You have to call the turn raise and see what river brings. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. There are only 2 cards in the deck (Kc and Qc) with which he might be drawing to a higher flush if and only if he doesn't already have a flush with KcQc or KcXc etc. The board is also paired, meaning that he might already have a full house vs our trip aces. He might also have trip aces with a lower (or higher) kicker. I think c/c on the turn then either c/c or b/f is a fine line that keeps the pot smaller, lets worse hands bet/bluff, and pays off better hands less. As played, call the turn min-raise and see what the river brings. It's too small of a raise relative to the pot to fold.
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#17
08-22-2007, 04:08 PM
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Re: $100/nl Check/fold turn?
[ QUOTE ]
Thank you for the replies. As soon as he called the flop my brain said "you're dead" then when the turn brought the A and again I knew I was crushed but I couldn't stop my hand from betting. Maybe this belongs in the psych forum but I could not stop myself. I called the reraise and he bet another $20 on the river that I said "F### it" and called to see his KQc. Why do I payoff these nits? Hi, my name is FrogMouth and I'm a calling station! [/ QUOTE ] As played, I think it would be a bigger mistake not to call the last $20 given the size of the pot. If he's betting that last $20 with less than what you've got as little as 16% of the time, then it's positive EV to make the call.
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#18
08-22-2007, 04:18 PM
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Re: $100/nl Check/fold turn?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You have to bet the turn. You can not check and let him draw for free. I like the size of your turn as well. You have to call the turn raise and see what river brings. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. There are only 2 cards in the deck (Kc and Qc) with which he might be drawing to a higher flush if and only if he doesn't already have a flush with KcQc or KcXc etc. The board is also paired, meaning that he might already have a full house vs our trip aces. He might also have trip aces with a lower (or higher) kicker. I think c/c on the turn then either c/c or b/f is a fine line that keeps the pot smaller, lets worse hands bet/bluff, and pays off better hands less. As played, call the turn min-raise and see what the river brings. It's too small of a raise relative to the pot to fold. [/ QUOTE ] I really don't know about calling the turn. What hand is calling this hand on a draw other than KQs. If this guy's range is KQs/AK/AQ/and sets then you are still in RIO land with like 5 weighted outs.
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