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#15
08-21-2007, 04:13 PM
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Re: crying call with KK??
Turn is a gross spot imo, but I guess I'd call it too since he may be on tilt and getting out of line. In general, I think that a TAG is checking behind a large % of his range of worse hands here. Also, I think his turn bet looks like VALUE and setting up for a river shove. I think the river is a pretty clear fold, just cuz I don't think he turns weak made hands into a bluff on this board (he shouldn't expect you to fold a big pair often, especially if he thinks that you think he's tilting/spewing), and I can't imagine that he's so gung-ho about playing a 150bb pot with any worse overpairs.
I actually think folding the turn is fine here, but if he's off his game because of tilt, I can see him betting some worse overpairs there. 
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#16
08-21-2007, 04:21 PM
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Re: crying call with KK??
[ QUOTE ]
Turn is a gross spot imo, but I guess I'd call it too since he may be on tilt and getting out of line. In general, I think that a TAG is checking behind a large % of his range of worse hands here. Also, I think his turn bet looks like VALUE and setting up for a river shove. I think the river is a pretty clear fold, just cuz I don't think he turns weak made hands into a bluff on this board (he shouldn't expect you to fold a big pair often, especially if he thinks that you think he's tilting/spewing), and I can't imagine that he's so gung-ho about playing a 150bb pot with any worse overpairs. I actually think folding the turn is fine here, but if he's off his game because of tilt, I can see him betting some worse overpairs there. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this, except if he were betting the turn with a worse overpair, then he'd almost certainly check behind on the river. Thinking about this hand some more, I think folding the turn might actually be best. It sure does feel nitty, but you beat absolutely nothing but a float, which is more unlikely considering his bet sizing.
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#19
08-21-2007, 04:44 PM
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Re: crying call with KK??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Turn is a gross spot imo, but I guess I'd call it too since he may be on tilt and getting out of line. In general, I think that a TAG is checking behind a large % of his range of worse hands here. Also, I think his turn bet looks like VALUE and setting up for a river shove. I think the river is a pretty clear fold, just cuz I don't think he turns weak made hands into a bluff on this board (he shouldn't expect you to fold a big pair often, especially if he thinks that you think he's tilting/spewing), and I can't imagine that he's so gung-ho about playing a 150bb pot with any worse overpairs. I actually think folding the turn is fine here, but if he's off his game because of tilt, I can see him betting some worse overpairs there. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this, except if he were betting the turn with a worse overpair, then he'd almost certainly check behind on the river. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with that statement - I'm not sure what I said in my original response that gave the impression that I was on the contrary. If it is the last sentence in my post that threw you off, I was talking about the turn specifically.
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#20
08-21-2007, 04:52 PM
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Re: crying call with KK??
I think if you call turn, you have to call the river. You're really only worried about 88 or 33 in this spot, IMO. I think a lot of strong hands on the flop: set, 2-pair, combo draw will raise you because of the potential action killers on the turn: 3, 5, 8. Plus, people tend to play fast when they're tilting.
He has to know that you realize he's tilting and should therefore expect you to call with weaker holdings on the flop and will likely play his strong hands faster.
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