calling two cold with nut flush draw on paired board

[johnnylovescandy]

Am I the only person here who folds this on the turn? You're not exactly drawing to the nuts, anymore. What makes anyone think this turn doesn't even get 3-bet after you cold-call here? Granted, this is easy call with almost any other turn card - but why take a chance???

[Scarmiglio]

PF - raise.

If we look at the numbers JLC has a point. We're getting 1:4 pot odds, but we have no more than 7 outs and possibly only 6 (Q spades and both kickers if they both have a ten are dirty). We can only assume more outs if one player has exactly AT and or 9T and this is somewhat offset by the possiblity that one of the players already has a full house with pocket sixes or QT. 7 outs out of 46 cards gives us 1:5.6 odds. Even 8 outs still only gives us 1:4.75.
Even with implied odds, we come out only marginally ahead. If we pick up 1bb from both players when we hit (unlikely we'll get more), we're still only getting 1:5 effective pot odds on our turn call if we're always good when we hit our 8 outer. We need to discount that for when we make a flush and one of the villains fills up, because we could lose as many as 3 bets on the river when this happens (villain bets, we raise, he 3-bets) and will definitely lose at least one bet.

The pot is pretty small, so I don't think you're giving up much if anything to muck it and wait for a better spot. had you raised preflop the pot would have enough in it to make this an easy call.

[Xhad]

-Often only the turn raiser has a T
-7 outs is still enough if you rarely get 3bet, and Scarmiglio you can't say 7/46 if you're going to start making assumptions about your opponents' cards
-While you will occasionally hit an expensive second-best hand, you must realize you are almost always getting 2BB when you hit and your hand is good
-This won't get 3bet very often because it's a B&M and B&M players suck at value betting big streets

This is a lot more marginal than usual and in fact every time I've folded a fd postflop in limit it was to a cold raise in an unraised pot on a paired board on the turn, but I don't think this is one of them.

[Scarmiglio]

We have to assume that at least one of our opponents has a ten here and his kicker is no good for us. The Q of spades is also no good - therefore 7 outs. Not only that, but opponent could already have pocket 66 or QT.

[Scarmiglio]

Also, how is 7 outs enough? Last time I checked 1:5 is less than 1:5.6, therfore you lose money every time you make this call assuming you have only 7 outs.

[Xhad]

-The 46 is the wrong number in 7/46 if you're going to make assumptions about your opponents' cards. Think about it.
-It's enough because we are still going to win river bets far more often than we lose them.

[johnnylovescandy]

The pair of tens on the board is much more threatening to our draw than is, say, a pair of sixes. A pair of sixes on board would possibly allow us to still win by spiking an ace on the river, and the decision to call two bets cold would be much closer, imo.

But for those of you who call here, would you still call with a much smaller flush draw? If not, then why?

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
But for those of you who call here, would you still call with a much smaller flush draw? If not, then why?

[/ QUOTE ]

While I'm not as sure about these, the obvious reason is that we are now vulnerable to flush over flush and there is a chance that one of them decided to take a shot on the turn with an fd.

[iceit]

get rid of it.Its not worth the call.The pot is pretty small and you are not drawing to the nuts. If the pot was a bigger I would think that it would be ok to call "just in case" but in this case, it is way too small for that.

-later

[Scarmiglio]

[ QUOTE ]
-The 46 is the wrong number in 7/46 if you're going to make assumptions about your opponents' cards. Think about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Got it. So if we assume one opponent has at least one ten (pretty safe with the action) we have 7/45 or 1:5.4 - still not good enough to make the call when the best case pot odds including implied odds are 1:5. The pot is too small to make this call +ev.