Big Stacks, Blind vs Blind - Page 2

b-komplex · #11 08-19-2007, 10:18 PM

I think he has air a lot actually but he's been able to manuever you into having to make a decision for basically your entire stack. If you push he essentially can play perfectly. Preserving your big stack here enables you to be the one applying the pressure in the future which is where you want to be. So even if a shove here is a moderate +cEV (it's close) I don't think it's the optimal path for you to maximize $EV in your tourney.

Stumpy · #12 08-19-2007, 11:50 PM

You can't say "Air a lot" and "fold" together here. This is a huge pot already.
I don't care if he folds when I push, if he's folding frequently.

We're already in the money, and we've still got 55 people in the tourney.
I'm not going deep by folding moderately +cEV spots.

Pokerfarian · #13 08-20-2007, 09:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has air a lot actually but he's been able to manuever you into having to make a decision for basically your entire stack.

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Yep, the line of putting in ~40% of your stack with air is very effective - he has to have a hand to play for 100% of stacks and your only risking 40%...and if people are folding 77 here I'm going to start using it more often

black666 · #14 08-20-2007, 10:18 AM

A shove has to be +EV here. From his perspective you tried to steal the blinds and fired a c-bet. You could do this with J3o. So I would say that his raising range is pretty wide here. Flush draw, Straight draw, K, 6, 66, 22, 88-TT or complete air.

In a $10 MTT with 10-minutes-"OMGZ let's gambol"-blind-levels I tend to not give respect to anyone unless shown otherwise. Maybe villain will even lay down 88-TT here.

Stumpy · #15 08-20-2007, 12:52 PM

I'd expect Kings, sets and flush draws to call if I shove. I would think almost everything else folds.

I hadn't checked the guys stats yet, and my timebank was gone from other slowly made decisions.

Personally, if he's a good player I'd expect air here more than if he sucks. Do people agree with that?

BarryLyndon · #16 08-20-2007, 02:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd expect Kings, sets and flush draws to call if I shove. I would think almost everything else folds.

I hadn't checked the guys stats yet, and my timebank was gone from other slowly made decisions.

Personally, if he's a good player I'd expect air here more than if he sucks. Do people agree with that?

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Not necessarily. I think the min-raise most likely means a stronger hand from a good player who has included that in his arsenal to get 4-betted. A bad player, OTOH, may have a weak six or be testing the waters with A high. Whatever the case, this is a sweetly [censored] spot for you and I highly recommend a fold.

Barry

Stumpy · #17 08-20-2007, 02:16 PM

Barry,

How often is a bad player just testing then?

b-komplex · #18 08-20-2007, 09:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You can't say "Air a lot" and "fold" together here. This is a huge pot already.
I don't care if he folds when I push, if he's folding frequently.

We're already in the money, and we've still got 55 people in the tourney.
I'm not going deep by folding moderately +cEV spots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stumpy, to continue with this pot you basically need to risk your whole stack and the fact is you have no idea whether or not it's +EV because so much is dependent on the bluff minraise range of a total unknown. Here I think your default is to fold because if you can maintain your big stack you will have soooo many more +cEV spots to take advantage of by pwning the various bubble situations. You lose here you are down to the last move in your arsenal.

So I think the real question here is how do we turn situations like this around and put our opponents to the test. I don't have the answer but this problem and the other thread Barry started have me thinking a lot more about manipulating pot size, which is something your opponent has done very effectively.

Stumpy · #19 08-20-2007, 10:10 PM

B-Komplex,

There is 56k in the pot after he min raises.
He has 41k behind. I have 76k with 12k to call.
Ending up with 23k here isn't great, but having 150k is pretty fantastic.

Pushing has to be right about 1/3rd of the time to break even.
Folding has to be right about 2/3rds of time to break even.

Because of that, I'm having trouble accepting I should just fold by default.
I admit I have no idea where I am in this hand.
But I think I should, and I think some of the more experienced players here would.

This player has played 41 tournaments lifetime. He has a 55% ROI, all from winning a single 4/180.
He's never bought into a tournament for more than $11.

I'm also open to hearing how to play this differently, but checking this flop doesn't seem like a great idea.

b-komplex · #20 08-20-2007, 10:59 PM

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I admit I have no idea where I am in this hand.
But I think I should, and I think some of the more experienced players here would.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doubt it, look at the variety of responses here. My gut says deep in a big $11 it's a fold but maybe that's only cause blind on blind violence has been the end of many a deep run for me.

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I'm also open to hearing how to play this differently, but checking this flop doesn't seem like a great idea.

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I guess I'm leaning toward complete/calling preflop cause a) you are deep enough to play for set value b) you are too deep to limp/reraise c) you can cbet 3x cheaper.