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#12
08-16-2007, 12:42 AM
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Re: Where is support? Black Thursday or Black Friday?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Does anyone really believe these charts work? [/ QUOTE ] some do. not sure why. [/ QUOTE ] same reason people jump on any get rich bandwagon. 
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#14
08-16-2007, 01:32 AM
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Re: Where is support? Black Thursday or Black Friday?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Does anyone really believe these charts work? [/ QUOTE ] some do. not sure why. [/ QUOTE ] same reason people jump on any get rich bandwagon. [/ QUOTE ] i'm as logical and fundamental as anybody gets...but there is some good reason (i.e. theories) why these charts (maybe not these exactly, but TA in general) can work far beyond what would be expected. one theory is that markets are driven by humans and, throwing out all value indicators, humans tend to react similarly in similar situations over time. "supports" can be built by the net participants purchasing as some level is hit. other indicators TAs use can also work in a similar manner by using human interactions with each other in the market. as everyone i think also knows, i highly respect benoit mandelbrot and, despite his thinking that TA is very bad to use as a practice, he has acknowledged that TA does seem to show persistant profits. the thing that i always go back to though is that you can generate almost perfect replicas (supports, trends and all) of human price charts via a randomly generated process (Multi-Fractal Model of Asset Prices). kinda hurts the TA arguments... Barron
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#15
08-16-2007, 11:37 AM
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Good bet but a little short on the odds
With the odds of a 450 point decline on any given day at over 100 to 1, even give the current conditions 1.5 - 1 is more than a little short, wouldn't you agree?
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#16
08-16-2007, 11:40 AM
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Re: Good bet but a little short on the odds
[ QUOTE ]
With the odds of a 450 point decline on any given day at over 100 to 1, even give the current conditions 1.5 - 1 is more than a little short, wouldn't you agree? [/ QUOTE ] care to cite how you calculate 100:1? Barron
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#18
08-16-2007, 12:00 PM
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and the funny part is...
The funny part is that as of now the market is almost halfway there and the day is young.
Plainly this is washout selling and some kind of reversal should be near. The question is whether it is near in time or near in points. Aaaah - the conundrum of the price, time, volume continuum
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#19
08-16-2007, 01:10 PM
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Re: and the funny part is...
I just bought 3k worth of VTSMX a week or two ago when the Dow was at ~13,400, and due to the recent plummetting, I threw another 1K in there yesterday (will buy at today's end price). Should I throw another 1K in there today?
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#20
08-16-2007, 02:08 PM
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Re: Where is support? Black Thursday or Black Friday?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Does anyone really believe these charts work? [/ QUOTE ] some do. not sure why. [/ QUOTE ] same reason people jump on any get rich bandwagon. [/ QUOTE ] i'm as logical and fundamental as anybody gets...but there is some good reason (i.e. theories) why these charts (maybe not these exactly, but TA in general) can work far beyond what would be expected. one theory is that markets are driven by humans and, throwing out all value indicators, humans tend to react similarly in similar situations over time. "supports" can be built by the net participants purchasing as some level is hit. other indicators TAs use can also work in a similar manner by using human interactions with each other in the market. as everyone i think also knows, i highly respect benoit mandelbrot and, despite his thinking that TA is very bad to use as a practice, he has acknowledged that TA does seem to show persistant profits. the thing that i always go back to though is that you can generate almost perfect replicas (supports, trends and all) of human price charts via a randomly generated process (Multi-Fractal Model of Asset Prices). kinda hurts the TA arguments... Barron [/ QUOTE ] This makes a little sense, but are there any billionaire TA guys? There are at least a handful of billionaire fundamental guys. Also its possible the TA guys who have done really well, just got lucky with a few positions and represent a survivorship bias.
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