50 NL QQ

[Grunch]

Make the flop 20 to go, call a push. Failing that bet 15 on the turn. I call the river bet. His line does not tell me he has AA; it tells me he has AJ -- which is why you should raise the flop or bet the turn.

[HBomb]

[ QUOTE ]
Make the flop 20 to go, call a push. Failing that bet 15 on the turn. I call the river bet. His line does not tell me he has AA; it tells me he has AJ -- which is why you should raise the flop or bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also with getting more in the pot sooner too for reasons I also stated, so a raise to 20 on the flop is pretty good here too.

[derosnec]

but he called a raise pf with TT in a different hand. so i think his 3bet range is tight, which is why i just called flop, to see what he does on a blank turn (which of course i screwed up).

[bored]

Were you trying to induce a river bluff with the turn check? As played, I'd call the river. I think you misrepresented your hand strength by taking your line and that Villain could have AK here or even TT/AJ. I think Villain likely fires again on the turn w/ AA/KK. Most passive villains will bet the 2nd nuts.

I'd probably get AI earlier in the hand.

[gumpzilla]

Bleh. You've played this passively/weakly enough that I think this could be AK bluffing reasonably often, even if his AF is pretty low. If he's on JJ+, AK and bets all of them, then you should definitely call. We'll ignore QQ, and say he bets JJ or KK+ 100% of the time here. How often does he need to bet his AK for you to call? You need to win 18/44. With AK being almost exactly half his range, I think he needs to be bluffing his AK a little more than 36/44 of the time, which is basically always. Given the low AF I guess that's unlikely, so I don't hate the river fold.

However, just because he didn't 3b TT last time doesn't mean he didn't do it this time, and if you throw AQ into the mix as a possible bluffing hand as well then he doesn't need to bluff nearly as often for that to be right (the wider range of hands he can bluff with means he doesn't need to bluff with any individual hand as often for it to be enough of the range for you to win 18/44 times). All told, your line just seems too weak to me to be certain that folding the river is right. I think I like the idea of b/f on the turn, perhaps, with the idea that if he just calls, he'll probably check to you on the river. This seems like a good way to get a cheapish showdown. EDIT: Also, on a brick river I think you'd have to call this bet anyway, as JJ will likely make a move on the river given your turn action.

[Grunch]

Just because he called in one hand with TT doesn't mean he won't 3bet here with AK or even AJ. You can't even say for sure that he always coldcalls with TT. Maybe he just did that time for some reason only known to himself.

Moreover, his flop & turn lines don't make sense if he has AA or KK. At least, they make less sense than if he has AK or AJ, and AJ makes sense when you consider his river play. Does he always have AJ here? Certianly not, he could have AA or KK or hell even JJ. But looking at the flop, turn & river, AJ makes a lot of sense.

When estimating hand ranges, don't be so stuck on your preflop estimate that you can't allow for the possibility of the most likely hand just because it seemed unlikely before the flop. People do strange things all the time.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

Moreover, his flop & turn lines don't make sense if he has AA or KK. At least, they make less sense than if he has AK or AJ, and AJ makes sense when you consider his river play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be making my initial stab at the flop bigger, but I definitely think I'd play AA or KK this way reasonably often from villain's position. It seems like a good way to induce a bet on the turn from hero and get it all in with a c/r.

[Go_BroKe]

I probably bet the turn. There are so many cards, you don't like to see on the river like A,K,J,T, etc.

As played, the river is tough, but I would fold too.

Why do you guys think, his line is weird? Against a TAG, I play AA,KK the same.

[K.Ruler]

bet turn
bet river
as played call i guess...your hand is way underrepped btw.

[ILikeTrees]

i think you folded the best hand. the action represents he doesn't ever really have AA,KK,QQ. from the flop and turn he looks like he hates his hand. if he had JJ+he would be betting much stronger, he has no idea you have QQ you've underepresented your hand so much

i think its most likely Aj-Ak,and bet the river to push you off the hand, which he did.

i'm not trying to be mean, but your being heavily exploited here. just think about what your actions look like to him.

if you look at the hand as a whole, i think its pretty straightforward.